Southampton vs Stoke City Prediction, Tips & Odds
Southampton vs Stoke City
Match Preview
The model favours Stoke City to win this match against Southampton, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Despite both teams having not played yet in the current season, Stoke City enters this match with a solid form from their last five matches, securing two wins, two draws, and one loss. Although these results are from the previous season, they indicate a competitive edge that may carry over into the new campaign. Southampton, on the other hand, finds themselves at the bottom of the standings in 24th position with no points to their name yet this season. However, they boast an impressive recent form of five consecutive wins, which reflects a strong finish to the previous season. This winning momentum could provide them with the confidence needed to challenge Stoke City effectively, despite the lack of current season data. The model gives Stoke City a win probability of approximately 60%, with a projected score of 2-1. A key market percentage suggests a high likelihood of Stoke City winning. However, the uncertainty lies in whether Southampton can maintain their winning form from the previous season into this match, especially given the pressures of a new campaign. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.8% probability.
Southampton have been the stronger side, winning 70% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.8% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Southampton clean sheets, in line with their 30% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Southampton are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Southampton vs Stoke City| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.63 | 3.95 | 4.90 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| 1.57 | 4.10 | 5.25 | 1.67 | 2.17 | 1.69 | 2.02 | |
| 1.60 | 4.20 | 5.00 | 1.62 | 2.20 | 1.73 | 2.10 | |
| 1.60 | 4.37 | 5.40 | 1.70 | 2.24 | — | — | |
| 1.58 | 3.81 | 4.72 | 1.66 | 2.21 | — | — | |
| 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.80 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 1.60 | 4.00 | 5.00 | 1.67 | 2.20 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.59 | 4.10 | 5.16 | 1.67 | 2.17 | 1.69 | 2.05 | |
| 1.58 | 4.00 | 5.20 | 1.61 | 2.20 | 1.66 | 2.10 | |
| 1.65 | 3.90 | 4.60 | 1.67 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
Betano | 1.60 | 4.20 | 5.30 | 1.72 | 2.20 | 1.72 | 2.05 |
Superbet | 1.63 | 4.15 | 5.00 | 1.70 | 2.17 | 1.73 | 2.05 |
BetVictor | 1.60 | 4.20 | 5.25 | 1.64 | 2.08 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 4-4)In the last 10 matches between Southampton and Stoke City, both teams have won 4 times, with 2 matches ending in a draw. This record indicates a balanced rivalry, with neither side dominating the other. The scorelines reveal a mix of close contests, with several matches decided by a single goal, such as Southampton's 2-1 win in 2016 and Stoke's 2-1 victory in 2017. Notably, there have been low-scoring draws, including two 0-0 matches. The last win for Stoke came in April 2024, suggesting both teams have had their moments but remain closely matched overall.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  West Ham | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 14 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  West Brom | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 13 | WWDLW |
| 3 |  Swansea | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 11 | LDWWD |
| 4 |  QPR | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11 | DLWWD |
| 5 |  Charlton | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 11 | DLDWW |
| 6 |  Middlesbrough | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | WDWLW |
| 13 | Southampton | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 7 | 7 | WDDWW |
| 15 | Stoke City | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 7 | DWWLL |
| 22 |  Derby | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4 | LLWLD |
| 23 |  Burnley | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 3 | DLDLL |
| 24 |  Preston | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 3 | LWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSouthampton have won 11 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Southampton 5-1 and lost to Southampton 1-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 23W 8D 2L from the last 33 games (70% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Stoke City have won 0 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Wolves 4-1 and lost to Southampton 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 8D 14L from the last 29 games (24% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
6 playersSouthampton1
Stoke City5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
S. Martin has averaged 8.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Southampton have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; Stoke City 2.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Southampton have generated 1.93 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 70% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Southampton player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
