ST Johnstone vs Falkirk Prediction, Tips & Odds
ST Johnstone vs Falkirk
Match Preview
The model favours a ST Johnstone win, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 7th place, ST Johnstone has had a mixed start to the season with two wins, one draw, and two losses from their five matches. They have scored eight goals while conceding the same number, reflecting a balanced goal difference of zero. Their recent form shows one win, two draws, and two losses, but they are still well-positioned compared to their opponent. Falkirk, on the other hand, finds themselves struggling in 11th place with no wins after five matches, managing only two draws and three losses. They have scored just three goals while allowing seven, leading to a negative goal difference of four. Their recent performances indicate a lack of consistency, with one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five matches. This puts them in a challenging position as they face a more competitive ST Johnstone side. According to the model, ST Johnstone has a 41.8% chance of winning, while Falkirk's chances stand at 31.1%, with a 27.1% probability of a draw. The model also suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 52.6% and both teams to score at 56.6%. However, an honest caveat is that ST Johnstone's inconsistency could allow Falkirk to capitalize on any defensive lapses. For a more comprehensive understanding of this prediction, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the method of our in-house model is detailed, focusing on expected goals and actual results.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.0% probability.
ST Johnstone have been the stronger side, winning 73% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.0% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature ST Johnstone clean sheets, in line with their 53% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. ST Johnstone are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
ST Johnstone vs Falkirk| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.04 | 3.34 | 3.50 | 1.97 | 1.78 | 1.77 | 1.92 | |
| 2.15 | 3.60 | 3.10 | 1.87 | 1.90 | 1.73 | 2.10 | |
| 2.10 | 3.52 | 3.67 | 2.01 | 1.88 | — | — | |
| 2.02 | 3.01 | 3.10 | 1.88 | 1.94 | — | — | |
| 2.05 | 3.25 | 3.50 | — | — | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.50 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 2.06 | 3.36 | 3.48 | 1.93 | 1.81 | 1.75 | 1.97 | |
| 2.25 | 3.30 | 3.00 | 1.75 | 1.95 | 1.65 | 2.15 | |
Betano | 2.12 | 3.40 | 3.50 | 2.02 | 1.83 | 1.78 | 1.98 |
BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.50 | 1.90 | 1.78 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 2 Meetings (evenly matched 1-1)The head-to-head record between ST Johnstone and Falkirk stands at 1 win for ST Johnstone and 1 win for Falkirk, with no draws in their last two encounters. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, as both teams have secured narrow victories, with ST Johnstone winning 1-0 in their League Cup match and Falkirk also winning 1-0 in a friendly. This suggests that matches between these two sides tend to be tightly contested and low-scoring, with no clear dominance from either team in recent history.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 18 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Rangers | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 13 | WWWWL |
| 3 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 12 | WWWWL |
| 4 |  ST Mirren | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 | LLWDW |
| 5 |  Motherwell | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 8 | LWDDW |
| 6 |  Dundee | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 | LDLWW |
| 7 | ST Johnstone | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 7 | LWDLL |
| 10 |  Aberdeen | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 4 | DLLLW |
| 11 | Falkirk | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2 | DLLDL |
| 12 |  Kilmarnock | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 1 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonST Johnstone have won 4 of their last 5 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 0. Their recent home fixtures include beat ST Johnstone 4-3 and drew with ST Johnstone 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 2D 2L from the last 15 games (73% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Falkirk have won 5 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Falkirk 1-1 and lost to Celtic 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 5D 13L from the last 30 games (40% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedST Johnstone4-2-3-1Confirmed
Falkirk4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersST Johnstone
No reported absences
Falkirk
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
ST Johnstone have averaged 6.0 corners per match at home; Falkirk 5.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
ST Johnstone have generated 1.42 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 73% of them. They put 4.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. ST Johnstone player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.