ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd Prediction, Tips & Odds
ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd
Match Preview
The model favours ST Mirren to win against Dundee Utd, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in third place, ST Mirren has enjoyed a solid start to the season with three wins, one draw, and one loss from their five matches. They have scored eight goals while conceding five, resulting in a positive goal difference of three. Their ability to find the net, combined with a resilient defence, positions them well for this match. In contrast, Dundee Utd finds themselves in ninth place, having played six matches with only one win to their name. Their record of one win, two draws, and three losses reflects a challenging start, with six goals scored but eleven conceded, leading to a negative goal difference of five. This struggle to maintain defensive stability has hindered their ability to secure points consistently. The model gives ST Mirren a 40.9% chance of winning, while Dundee Utd's win probability stands at 32.2%, and a draw is estimated at 26.9%. One factor to consider is that if Dundee Utd can improve their defensive performance, they might pose a greater threat than their current form suggests. For a deeper understanding of our prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyses expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.3% probability.
ST Mirren have been the stronger side, winning 41% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. ST Mirren are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.26 | 3.58 | 2.83 | 1.59 | 2.27 | 1.48 | 2.43 | |
| 2.45 | 3.20 | 3.00 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.47 | 2.63 | |
| 2.34 | 3.75 | 2.95 | 1.62 | 2.38 | — | — | |
| 2.17 | 3.22 | 2.63 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.25 | 3.40 | 2.80 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 2.30 | 3.60 | 2.88 | 1.62 | 2.30 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 2.29 | 3.58 | 2.83 | 1.59 | 2.27 | 1.48 | 2.47 | |
Betano | 2.42 | 3.55 | 2.80 | 1.65 | 2.30 | 1.52 | 2.45 |
BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.70 | 2.80 | 1.57 | 2.20 | 1.47 | 2.45 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Dundee Utd leads 6-2)In the last 10 matches between ST Mirren and Dundee Utd, Dundee Utd has won 6 times, ST Mirren has won 2, and there has been 1 draw. This record indicates a clear advantage for Dundee Utd, with several matches exhibiting narrow victories, as seen in the 1-0 and 2-1 scorelines. However, ST Mirren has managed to secure a couple of wins, including a notable 2-0 victory at home. The most recent draw occurred in March 2023, suggesting that while Dundee Utd has been dominant, ST Mirren can still pose a challenge on occasion.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 18 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Rangers | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 13 | WWWWL |
| 3 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 12 | WWWWL |
| 4 | ST Mirren | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 | LLWDW |
| 5 |  Motherwell | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 8 | LWDDW |
| 6 |  Dundee | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 7 | LDLWW |
| 9 | Dundee Utd | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 5 | DLWLL |
| 10 |  Aberdeen | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 4 | DLLLW |
| 11 |  Falkirk | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2 | DLLDL |
| 12 |  Kilmarnock | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 14 | -10 | 1 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonST Mirren have won 5 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Celtic 1-2 and drew with Motherwell 3-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 6D 13L from the last 32 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Dundee Utd have won 3 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Motherwell 3-0 and beat Kilmarnock 0-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 7D 12L from the last 30 games (37% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersST Mirren
No reported absences
Dundee Utd
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
ST Mirren have averaged 6.5 corners per match at home; Dundee Utd 4.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
ST Mirren have generated 0.98 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 41% of them. They put 4.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. ST Mirren player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.