Stoke City vs Norwich Prediction, Tips & Odds
Stoke City vs Norwich
Match Preview
The model favours Stoke City to win against Norwich, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Stoke currently sits in 20th place in the Championship, having played one match this season, which they lost. However, their recent form shows promise, with two wins, two draws, and only one loss in their last five matches. This indicates a level of competitiveness that could translate into a stronger performance at home. Norwich, on the other hand, is positioned 18th and also has one loss to start their season. Their recent form is slightly less encouraging, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. This inconsistency could be a concern as they look to find their rhythm early in the season. The model suggests a win probability of 55% for Stoke City and 25% for Norwich, with a key market percentage indicating a slight edge for Stoke in terms of expected goals. One caveat is that both teams have struggled defensively in their opening match, which could lead to unexpected scoring opportunities for Norwich if Stoke does not tighten up. For a detailed breakdown of our prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team uses an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Stoke City manage games at home, conceding just 1.52 goals per match. Norwich score 1.58 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.9% probability.
Norwich have been the stronger side, winning 58% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Norwich are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Stoke City vs Norwich| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.45 | 3.50 | 2.04 | 1.85 | 1.93 | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| 3.48 | 3.45 | 2.02 | 1.90 | 1.87 | 1.72 | 1.98 | |
| 3.50 | 3.50 | 2.05 | 1.87 | 1.87 | 1.73 | 2.10 | |
| 3.67 | 3.62 | 2.06 | 1.97 | 1.92 | — | — | |
| 3.21 | 3.16 | 2.08 | 1.97 | 1.87 | — | — | |
| 3.40 | 3.30 | 2.05 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 3.70 | 3.50 | 2.00 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 3.48 | 3.45 | 2.04 | 1.90 | 1.87 | 1.72 | 2.01 | |
| 3.20 | 3.50 | 2.10 | 1.79 | 1.97 | 1.64 | 2.12 | |
Betano | 3.50 | 3.50 | 2.10 | 1.90 | 1.95 | 1.70 | 2.07 |
Superbet | 3.45 | 3.45 | 2.12 | 1.92 | 1.88 | 1.74 | 2.02 |
BetVictor | 3.50 | 3.50 | 2.05 | 1.86 | 1.82 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Norwich leads 6-1)In the last 10 matches between Stoke City and Norwich, Norwich has won 6 times, while Stoke City has secured just 1 victory, with 3 matches ending in a draw. The scorelines indicate a trend favoring Norwich, with several decisive wins, including a 4-1 and a 4-2 result, suggesting they have often been the stronger side. Stoke City's lone victory came in a 2-0 win, but overall, the results show a pattern of Norwich dominating this matchup. The last time Stoke City won against Norwich was in January 2026, highlighting a prolonged struggle against their opponents.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  West Ham | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 14 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  West Brom | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 13 | WWDLW |
| 3 |  Swansea | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 11 | LDWWD |
| 4 |  QPR | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11 | DLWWD |
| 5 |  Charlton | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 11 | DLDWW |
| 6 |  Middlesbrough | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | WDWLW |
| 9 | Norwich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 9 | 1 | 9 | WWLWL |
| 15 | Stoke City | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 7 | DWWLL |
| 22 |  Derby | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4 | LLWLD |
| 23 |  Burnley | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 3 | DLDLL |
| 24 |  Preston | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 3 | LWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonStoke City have won 7 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Charlton 4-0 and beat Norwich 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 8D 14L from the last 29 games (24% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Norwich have won 9 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Norwich 1-3 and lost to Stoke City 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 5D 9L from the last 33 games (58% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
12 playersStoke City7
Norwich5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
A. Kitchen has averaged 3.5 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Stoke City have averaged 2.4 corners per match at home; Norwich 4.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Norwich have generated 2.12 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 58% of them. They put 5.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Norwich player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
