Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe
Match Preview
The model favours Fenerbahçe to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Fenerbahçe comes into this fixture with strong momentum, having secured four wins and one draw in their last five matches. This unbeaten run highlights their attacking prowess and defensive resilience, essential traits as they compete in the UEFA Champions League qualifying rounds. Sturm Graz also boasts an impressive recent form, winning all five of their last matches. This perfect record indicates a team that is in high spirits and building confidence. However, the absence of a detailed season overview makes it challenging to fully assess their standing relative to Fenerbahçe. The model output gives Fenerbahçe a significant win probability, reflecting their recent form and overall squad strength. However, it is important to note that an unexpected slip in performance or a key player being unavailable could alter the outcome. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, please see the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.9% probability.
Fenerbahçe have been the stronger side, winning 67% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Fenerbahçe are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sturm Graz vs Fenerbahçe| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.10 | 3.95 | 1.74 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.60 | 2.15 | |
| 4.10 | 3.84 | 1.76 | 1.65 | 2.19 | 1.59 | 2.18 | |
| 3.90 | 3.70 | 1.73 | 1.65 | 2.10 | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
| 4.18 | 3.92 | 1.79 | 1.66 | 2.23 | — | — | |
| 3.74 | 3.44 | 1.76 | 1.66 | 2.21 | — | — | |
| 3.90 | 3.60 | 1.75 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.15 | |
| 4.20 | 4.00 | 1.75 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 4.28 | 4.01 | 1.84 | 1.71 | 2.27 | 1.59 | 2.21 | |
| 4.35 | 3.80 | 1.78 | 1.61 | 2.12 | 1.58 | 2.17 | |
| 4.00 | 3.60 | 1.75 | 1.65 | 2.15 | 1.62 | 2.15 | |
Betano | 4.25 | 3.85 | 1.80 | 1.67 | 2.27 | 1.60 | 2.25 |
Superbet | 4.00 | 4.10 | 1.80 | 1.64 | 2.27 | 1.62 | 2.20 |
BetVictor | 4.33 | 4.00 | 1.75 | 1.62 | 2.11 | 1.60 | 2.20 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 2 Meetings (Fenerbahçe leads 1-0)The head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Fenerbahçe stands at 0 wins for Sturm Graz, 1 draw, and 1 win for Fenerbahçe. Their encounters reveal a competitive dynamic, with both matches yielding close scorelines. The single draw indicates that neither team has dominated the other, while Fenerbahçe's 2-1 victory suggests they have had the edge historically. Additionally, the last match ended in a draw, showing that Sturm Graz has been able to compete effectively, even if they have yet to secure a victory against Fenerbahçe.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonSturm Graz have won 10 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Sturm Graz 4-0 and beat Sturm Graz 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 12D 5L from the last 33 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Fenerbahçe have won 9 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat Fenerbahçe 0-1 and drew with Gornik Zabrze 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 5D 4L from the last 27 games (67% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSturm Graz4-4-2Confirmed
Fenerbahçe4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersSturm Graz
No reported absences
Fenerbahçe
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
A. Hernandez has averaged 4.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Sturm Graz have averaged 5.9 corners per match at home; Fenerbahçe 6.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Fenerbahçe have generated 2.05 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 67% of them. They put 6.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Fenerbahçe player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
