Sturm Graz vs Rennes Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sturm Graz vs Rennes
Match Preview
The model favours Sturm Graz to win against Rennes with a projected scoreline of 2-1. As Sturm Graz enters the UEFA Europa League, they are looking to capitalize on their relatively stronger recent form. Although both teams start the competition with no points or games played this season, Sturm Graz has shown some resilience with two wins in their last five matches, which could provide a confidence boost as they look to establish themselves in the group stage. On the other hand, Rennes has struggled recently, managing only one victory in their last five outings. Their form includes three losses, which may weigh on their confidence as they begin this new campaign. Despite starting the tournament with a clean slate, the pressure to perform could be a factor for a team that has encountered difficulties in recent fixtures. The model output indicates a win probability favouring Sturm Graz, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a potential caveat is that both teams are entering the tournament without prior competitive matches this season, which can lead to unpredictability. The full methodology of the prediction is explained in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season. The Daily Punt Analysis Team emphasizes data-driven insights to inform their predictions.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.1% probability.
Rennes have been the stronger side, winning 45% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Rennes are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sturm Graz vs Rennes| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.00 | 4.05 | 1.82 | 1.48 | 2.41 | 1.49 | 2.44 | |
| 4.00 | 3.90 | 1.80 | 1.50 | 2.55 | 1.47 | 2.63 | |
| 4.19 | 4.06 | 1.81 | 1.54 | 2.56 | — | — | |
| 3.12 | 3.26 | 1.92 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.80 | 3.75 | 1.83 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 4.00 | 4.00 | 1.80 | 1.53 | 2.50 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 4.11 | 4.11 | 1.84 | 1.48 | 2.41 | 1.49 | 2.48 | |
Betano | 4.15 | 4.05 | 1.85 | 1.57 | 2.50 | 1.52 | 2.45 |
BetVictor | 3.90 | 4.00 | 1.75 | 1.50 | 2.37 | 1.45 | 2.50 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (evenly matched 0-0)The head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Rennes shows 0 wins for Sturm Graz, 1 draw, and 0 wins for Rennes. Their only encounter ended in a goalless draw, indicating a tightly contested match with no side able to secure a victory. This result suggests that both teams may have had similar levels of performance in that fixture, leading to a lack of scoring opportunities. As it stands, neither team has a historical advantage over the other.
UEFA Europa League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 2 |  Crystal Palace | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 3 |  Sparta Praha | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 4 |  Beşiktaş | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Union St. Gilloise | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 6 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 17 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 18 | Rennes | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 34 |  Plzen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 35 |  Lech Poznan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 | L |
| 36 |  NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSturm Graz have won 13 of their last 24 matches at home, drawing 9 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Floridsdorfer AC 3-1 and drew with Rennes 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 14D 8L from the last 42 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Rennes have won 6 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Rennes 1-0 and lost to Lyon 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 5D 13L from the last 33 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSturm Graz4-4-2Confirmed
Rennes4-1-4-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
5 playersSturm Graz5
Rennes
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Lukjancukas has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by M. Lukjancukas to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Sturm Graz have averaged 5.8 corners per match at home; Rennes 5.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Rennes have generated 1.40 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 45% of them. They put 4.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Rennes player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
