Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar
Match Preview
The model favours AZ Alkmaar to win against Sunderland, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. AZ Alkmaar enters the match with a strong reputation, having secured their position at the top of the league last season. Their recent form is impressive, boasting five consecutive wins, which reflects a well-oiled machine capable of maintaining momentum. With no goals conceded in their last five matches, their defensive solidity is a key factor that Sunderland will need to contend with. On the other hand, Sunderland is still looking to establish themselves as they prepare for their first match of the season. With a mixed recent form of three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches, they will aim to build on this as they step into the Europa League. However, without any competitive games played this season, it is hard to predict how well they will adapt to the higher stakes and the quality of opposition they will face in this tournament. The model indicates a win probability of around 65% for AZ Alkmaar, along with the expected score of 2-0. A key market to consider is the odds on AZ Alkmaar to win by at least two goals. One caveat could be Sunderland's potential home advantage, which may spur them on despite their lack of recent competitive play. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis comes from The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.2% probability.
Sunderland have been the stronger side, winning 46% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Sunderland win as the most likely scoreline at 14.2% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Sunderland clean sheets, in line with their 29% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Sunderland are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sunderland vs AZ Alkmaar| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.50 | 4.65 | 6.65 | 1.71 | 2.16 | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| 1.47 | 4.40 | 6.50 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| 1.51 | 4.64 | 6.32 | 1.71 | 2.20 | — | — | |
| 1.55 | 3.62 | 4.45 | 1.67 | 2.17 | — | — | |
| 1.44 | 4.20 | 6.00 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.91 | |
| 1.48 | 4.50 | 6.25 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.50 | 4.66 | 6.65 | 1.74 | 2.19 | 1.80 | 1.92 | |
Betano | 1.55 | 4.55 | 6.40 | 1.75 | 2.15 | 1.82 | 1.93 |
BetVictor | 1.45 | 4.40 | 6.50 | 1.65 | 2.06 | 1.78 | 1.93 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (evenly matched 0-0)In the only recorded match between Sunderland and AZ Alkmaar, the teams played to a 0-0 draw. This result indicates a tightly contested fixture, with neither side able to secure a victory. The scoreline reflects a low-scoring pattern, suggesting that both defenses were effective in preventing goals. As there have been no wins for either team in this head-to-head matchup, it highlights a balanced encounter, albeit with limited historical data to draw further conclusions.
UEFA Europa League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Anderlecht | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Ararat-Armenia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WD |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 |  Benfica | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WWDWW |
| 5 |  Beşiktaş | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | LWWWW |
| 6 |  Bournemouth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 33 | Sunderland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 34 |  Torreense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 35 |  Union St. Gilloise | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 36 |  Plzen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | WL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSunderland have won 6 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Sunderland 1-0 and beat Sunderland 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 4D 11L from the last 28 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
AZ Alkmaar have won 5 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat AZ Alkmaar 2-3 and beat Fortuna Sittard 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 8D 7L from the last 33 games (55% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSunderland4-2-3-1Confirmed
AZ Alkmaar4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersSunderland
No reported absences
AZ Alkmaar
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Pignard has averaged 5.0 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Sunderland average 1.3 goals per match at home; AZ Alkmaar 2.1 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Sunderland have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 46% of their matches and averaging 1.3 goals per game. Sunderland player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.