Swansea vs Burnley Prediction, Tips & Odds
Swansea vs Burnley
Match Preview
The model favours Swansea to win, projecting a scoreline of 2-0 against Burnley. Swansea is currently in a strong position, sitting third in the Championship standings after three matches, with two wins and a draw, accumulating seven points. Their goal difference of +4, having scored five goals while conceding only one, highlights a solid defensive record combined with efficient attacking play. In contrast, Burnley finds itself struggling at 22nd place, with no wins from their three matches and just one point. They have conceded nine goals while only managing to score four, resulting in a goal difference of -5. Their recent form shows no victories in the last five matches, with three draws and two losses, indicating difficulties in both defence and attack. The model estimates Swansea has a high win probability for this match. However, a potential caveat is that if Burnley can improve their performance and exploit any weaknesses in Swansea's defence, they could pose a challenge. For detailed insights into our predictions, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results over the season to derive these forecasts.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.1% probability.
Swansea have been the stronger side, winning 45% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.1% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Swansea clean sheets, in line with their 38% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Swansea are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Swansea vs Burnley| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.18 | 3.40 | 3.15 | 1.85 | 1.93 | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
| 2.04 | 3.44 | 3.44 | 1.87 | 1.90 | 1.69 | 2.02 | |
| 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.50 | 1.87 | 1.90 | 1.65 | 2.20 | |
| 2.13 | 3.51 | 3.57 | 1.93 | 1.96 | — | — | |
| 2.01 | 3.24 | 3.31 | 1.87 | 1.97 | — | — | |
| 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.40 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.40 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 2.06 | 3.44 | 3.44 | 1.87 | 1.90 | 1.69 | 2.05 | |
| 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 1.78 | 1.97 | 1.64 | 2.12 | |
| 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.10 | 1.83 | 1.91 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
Betano | 2.12 | 3.40 | 3.50 | 1.90 | 1.95 | 1.70 | 2.07 |
BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 1.82 | 1.85 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 5-5)The head-to-head record between Swansea and Burnley is evenly split, with each team winning 5 of their last 10 encounters and no draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of tight contests and some more decisive outcomes, with Swansea's largest win being 3-2 and Burnley's notable 4-0 victory. There have been a few low-scoring matches, suggesting that while both teams have had their share of successes, the results have often been competitive. The last time Burnley won against Swansea was in October 2022, indicating a balanced rivalry over recent seasons.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  West Ham | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 14 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  West Brom | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 13 | WWDLW |
| 3 | Swansea | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 11 | LDWWD |
| 4 |  QPR | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11 | DLWWD |
| 5 |  Charlton | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 11 | DLDWW |
| 6 |  Middlesbrough | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | WDWLW |
| 22 |  Derby | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4 | LLWLD |
| 23 | Burnley | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 3 | DLDLL |
| 24 |  Preston | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 3 | LWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSwansea have won 8 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Wrexham 0-0 and beat Watford 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 7D 9L from the last 29 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Burnley have won 1 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 11. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Norwich 4-1 and drew with Bradford 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 2W 11D 18L from the last 31 games (6% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSwansea4-2-3-1Confirmed
Burnley4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
11 playersSwansea3
Burnley8
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Swansea have averaged 6.0 corners per match at home; Burnley 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Swansea have generated 1.78 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 45% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Swansea player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
