Tokyo Verdy vs Kashima Prediction, Tips & Odds
Tokyo Verdy vs Kashima
Match Preview
The model favours Kashima to win against Tokyo Verdy, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Kashima currently sits in 4th place in the J1 League standings, having won both of their opening matches this season. With a total of 6 goals scored and only 4 conceded, their goal difference of +2 reflects a solid attacking performance coupled with a decent defensive effort. In contrast, Tokyo Verdy is struggling at 16th position, having earned just 1 point from their first two fixtures. They have scored 2 goals but conceded 4, resulting in a goal difference of -2. Their recent form shows a concerning trend, with no wins in their last five matches, which includes three losses and two draws. This lack of momentum could further hinder their performance as they face a stronger opponent. The model indicates a win probability of 65% for Kashima, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market to note is the over/under on goals, which could be influenced by Kashima’s attacking prowess. However, the main caveat is that if Tokyo Verdy can improve their defensive organization, they might challenge Kashima more effectively than expected. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model leverages expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Tokyo Verdy have kept a clean sheet in 25% of matches. Kashima average 1.9 goals per game.
Tokyo Verdy manage games at home, conceding just 1.75 goals per match. Kashima score 1.86 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 18.4% probability.
Kashima have been the stronger side, winning 76% of their matches.
Our model projects a 0-1 Kashima win as the most likely scoreline at 18.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Kashima are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Tokyo Verdy vs Kashima| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.50 | 3.40 | 1.80 | 2.29 | 1.60 | 2.06 | 1.66 | |
| 4.50 | 3.40 | 1.75 | — | — | — | — | |
| 4.94 | 3.32 | 1.82 | 2.35 | 1.61 | — | — | |
| 4.60 | 3.20 | 1.80 | — | — | 2.05 | 1.73 | |
| 4.61 | 3.48 | 1.84 | 2.32 | 1.62 | 2.06 | 1.68 | |
Betano | 4.75 | 3.20 | 1.82 | 2.30 | 1.60 | 2.05 | 1.70 |
BetVictor | 4.60 | 3.30 | 1.80 | 2.19 | 1.58 | 2.05 | 1.67 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 6 Meetings (Kashima leads 3-2)In the last six matches between Tokyo Verdy and Kashima, the record stands at Tokyo Verdy 2 wins, 1 draw, and Kashima 3 wins. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with three matches being decided by a single goal, including two 2-1 results for Tokyo Verdy. Kashima has recorded a significant 4-0 victory, suggesting they can dominate when in form. The draw in their most recent encounter shows that matches can be closely contested. Notably, Tokyo Verdy's last win over Kashima occurred in August 2024, indicating a challenge in recent fixtures against this opponent.
J1 League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Machida Zelvia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Kashiwa Reysol | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 | Kashima | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 9 | WWW |
| 4 |  Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 7 | DWW |
| 5 |  Yokohama F. Marinos | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 6 | WWL |
| 6 |  Cerezo Osaka | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 6 | WLW |
| 17 | Tokyo Verdy | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 | DLD |
| 18 |  Kyoto Sanga | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 1 | LDL |
| 19 |  Urawa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 20 |  JEF United Chiba | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 | -9 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2027 SeasonTokyo Verdy have won 5 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Tokyo Verdy 1-3 and drew with Tokyo Verdy 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 7D 14L from the last 28 games (25% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Kashima have won 7 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include beat Yokohama F. Marinos 3-4 and lost to Vissel Kobe 5-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 22W 5D 2L from the last 29 games (76% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersTokyo Verdy
No reported absences
Kashima
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Tokyo Verdy have averaged 4.1 corners per match at home; Kashima 4.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Kashima have generated 1.62 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 76% of them. They put 4.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Kashima player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
