Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin Prediction, Tips & Odds
Union Santa Fe vs Sarmiento Junin
Match Preview
The model favours Union Santa Fe to win against Sarmiento Junin, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned 8th in the league, Union Santa Fe has accumulated 21 points from 16 matches, with a goal difference of +4. Their recent form, however, has been inconsistent, with just one win in their last five matches. Nonetheless, they have managed to score 24 goals this season, indicating their attacking potential. On the other hand, Sarmiento Junin sits 11th in the standings with 19 points from 16 games. Their season has been marked by struggles in both defence and attack, having scored only 13 goals while conceding 20, resulting in a goal difference of -7. Their recent form shows two wins in their last five matches, but they have experienced a downturn with three consecutive losses, which could impact their confidence heading into this fixture. The model output suggests a win probability of 55% for Union Santa Fe, with a 25% chance for Sarmiento Junin to secure the victory. A key market percentage indicates that Union is favoured to win at approximately 45%. One caveat to consider is Union's recent inconsistency, which, if it continues, could allow Sarmiento to capitalize on their vulnerabilities. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team explains our in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Head to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Union Santa Fe leads 6-3)Union Santa Fe hold the edge in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 10 meetings with 1 draws and 3 Sarmiento Junin wins. The record points to a tie Union Santa Fe have controlled for years, though the draws show Sarmiento Junin have at times kept it tight.
Liga Profesional Argentina Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Independ. Rivadavia | 16 | 10 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 34 | DLWLW |
| 1 |  Estudiantes L.P. | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 7 | 12 | 31 | LWLLW |
| 2 |  River Plate | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 29 | WLLLL |
| 2 |  Boca Juniors | 16 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 9 | 13 | 30 | DDWDL |
| 3 |  Velez Sarsfield | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 18 | 12 | 6 | 28 | DDWWW |
| 3 |  Argentinos JRS | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 13 | 4 | 29 | LWWWW |
| 8 | Union Santa Fe | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 20 | 4 | 21 | WLLWL |
| 11 | Sarmiento Junin | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 19 | WWWWL |
| 14 |  Aldosivi | 16 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 8 | LDLLL |
| 15 |  Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 24 | -19 | 5 | DLLDL |
| 15 |  Deportivo Riestra | 16 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 11 | DLWLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonUnion Santa Fe have won 5 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Union Santa Fe 1-2 and beat Union Santa Fe 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 8D 10L from the last 27 games (33% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Sarmiento Junin have won 2 of their last 11 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include beat Atletico Tucuman 1-2 and lost to Banfield 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 2D 12L from the last 25 games (44% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersUnion Santa Fe
No reported absences
Sarmiento Junin
No reported absences
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
