VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction, Tips & Odds
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund
Match Preview
The model favours Borussia Dortmund to win, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against VfB Stuttgart. Dortmund currently sits in third place in the Bundesliga, having won both of their opening matches this season. Their strong start, coupled with a goal difference of +3, highlights their offensive capabilities and defensive resilience, conceding only two goals so far. On the other side, VfB Stuttgart is positioned ninth, with a record of one win and one loss from their first two games. They have scored five goals but also conceded six, resulting in a negative goal difference. While their recent form shows a mix of results, they face an uphill battle against a well-organised Dortmund side. The model gives Borussia Dortmund a win probability of approximately 60%, reflecting their strong start and overall performance. However, Stuttgart’s ability to score five goals indicates that they can be dangerous in attack, which could pose a challenge for Dortmund's defence. For a deeper understanding of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that examines expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.1% probability.
VfB Stuttgart have been the stronger side, winning 53% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 12.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. VfB Stuttgart are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.46 | 3.84 | 2.74 | 1.35 | 2.98 | 1.31 | 3.14 | |
| 2.40 | 3.90 | 2.70 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.30 | 3.30 | |
| 2.44 | 3.93 | 2.75 | 1.38 | 3.14 | — | — | |
| 2.32 | 3.49 | 2.41 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.38 | 3.60 | 2.60 | — | — | 1.35 | 3.20 | |
| 2.35 | 3.90 | 2.70 | 1.36 | 3.20 | 1.33 | 3.25 | |
| 2.50 | 3.90 | 2.78 | 1.35 | 2.98 | 1.31 | 3.20 | |
Betano | 2.45 | 3.85 | 2.62 | 1.39 | 3.05 | 1.34 | 3.10 |
BetVictor | 2.30 | 4.10 | 2.60 | 1.34 | 2.91 | 1.29 | 3.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (VfB Stuttgart leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between VfB Stuttgart and Borussia Dortmund, VfB Stuttgart has won 5 times, Borussia Dortmund has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with Stuttgart achieving several notable victories, including a dominant 5-1 win. The matches have featured a mix of high-scoring games, such as the 3-3 draws, and some narrow results, highlighting both teams' ability to compete closely. Borussia Dortmund's last win in this fixture came over a year ago, suggesting a shift in momentum towards Stuttgart in recent encounters.
Bundesliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Augsburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 6 | WW |
| 2 |  SC Freiburg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | WW |
| 3 | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | WW |
| 4 |  SV Elversberg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 5 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 4 | WD |
| 6 |  Bayern München | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | DW |
| 9 | VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 | WL |
| 16 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 0 | LL |
| 17 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 0 | LL |
| 18 |  Hamburger SV | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -7 | 0 | LL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonVfB Stuttgart have won 10 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat 1. FC Köln 4-1 and beat Everton 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 6D 9L from the last 32 games (53% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Borussia Dortmund have won 10 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Borussia Dortmund 2-3 and beat HEBC 0-5.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 2D 9L from the last 29 games (62% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedVfB Stuttgart3-4-2-1Confirmed
Borussia Dortmund3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersVfB Stuttgart
No reported absences
Borussia Dortmund
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Tobias Stieler has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Tobias Stieler to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
VfB Stuttgart have averaged 5.2 corners per match at home; Borussia Dortmund 3.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
VfB Stuttgart have generated 1.60 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 53% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. VfB Stuttgart player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
