West Brom vs Burnley Prediction, Tips & Odds
West Brom vs Burnley
Match Preview
The model favours West Brom to win this match against Burnley, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. West Brom enters the season with a strong momentum, having won their last five matches in a row, which suggests they are carrying confidence into the new campaign. While the current league standings show them at position 18, their recent form indicates a positive trajectory that could translate into the season ahead. In contrast, Burnley has struggled recently, with their last five matches resulting in two draws and three losses. This form may weigh on their confidence as they start the season. Although they are positioned higher at 9th, it is important to note that their recent performances do not reflect a team in peak condition, which could hinder their chances in this matchup. The model output gives West Brom a win probability of approximately 60%, while Burnley's chances sit at around 25%. One key market to watch is the goals market, where the expectation is for a tight contest. However, if West Brom fails to carry their recent form into this match or if Burnley manages to regroup and surprise, the outcome could shift unexpectedly. The full method of our prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where we employ an in-house model analysing expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
West Brom manage games at home, conceding just 1.00 goals per match. Burnley score 1.06 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.0% probability.
West Brom have been the stronger side, winning 38% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. West Brom are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
West Brom vs Burnley| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.76 | 3.25 | 2.48 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 2.54 | 3.20 | 2.73 | 1.99 | 1.79 | 1.74 | 1.95 | |
| 2.60 | 3.25 | 2.80 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.73 | 2.10 | |
| 2.60 | 3.36 | 2.85 | 2.05 | 1.85 | — | — | |
| 2.41 | 3.12 | 2.67 | 2.05 | 1.79 | — | — | |
| 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.70 | — | — | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.80 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 2.54 | 3.20 | 2.73 | 1.99 | 1.79 | 1.74 | 1.98 | |
| 2.63 | 3.20 | 2.65 | 2.06 | 1.70 | 1.79 | 1.92 | |
| 2.75 | 3.10 | 2.50 | 2.00 | 1.73 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
Betano | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.70 | 2.07 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.95 |
Superbet | 2.57 | 3.30 | 2.77 | 2.05 | 1.78 | 1.78 | 1.97 |
BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.30 | 2.80 | 1.93 | 1.75 | 1.73 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 2-2)In the last ten matches between West Brom and Burnley, both teams have won twice, with six matches ending in draws. This record indicates a competitive rivalry, with a notable tendency for tightly contested encounters, as evidenced by the frequent draws and low-scoring games. The scorelines reflect a mix of narrow victories and a single heavy win for West Brom, who triumphed 4-0 in 2016. Burnley last claimed victory against West Brom in January 2023, making it clear that neither side has dominated this matchup recently.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  West Ham | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 14 | WWWWD |
| 2 | West Brom | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 13 | WWDLW |
| 3 |  Swansea | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 11 | LDWWD |
| 4 |  QPR | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11 | DLWWD |
| 5 |  Charlton | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 11 | DLDWW |
| 6 |  Middlesbrough | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | WDWLW |
| 22 |  Derby | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4 | LLWLD |
| 23 | Burnley | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 3 | DLDLL |
| 24 |  Preston | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 3 | LWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonWest Brom have won 5 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Watford 1-0 and drew with Charlton 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 11D 7L from the last 29 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Burnley have won 1 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 11. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Norwich 4-1 and drew with Bradford 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 2W 11D 18L from the last 31 games (6% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
8 playersWest Brom3
Burnley5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
A. Backhouse has averaged 4.7 yellow cards per match across 3 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
West Brom have averaged 4.8 corners per match at home; Burnley 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
West Brom have generated 1.17 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 38% of them. They put 4.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. West Brom player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
