Wrexham vs Burnley Prediction, Tips & Odds
Wrexham vs Burnley
Match Preview
The model favours Wrexham to win against Burnley, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Wrexham currently sits in 14th place in the Championship standings, having played two matches without a win but managing to secure two draws. Their goal difference stands at zero, with two goals scored and two conceded. Despite a recent string of mixed results, Wrexham's ability to hold their opponents to draws suggests a resilience that could be pivotal in this match. On the other hand, Burnley is positioned 18th, with one point from two games, characterized by a loss and a draw. They have struggled in the early part of the season, conceding five goals while scoring three. Burnley's recent form shows no wins in their last five matches, with three draws and two losses, indicating a lack of momentum that may hinder their performance against Wrexham. The model output indicates a win probability of approximately 55% for Wrexham, while the key market suggests a slight edge in favour of the home team. However, one caveat to consider is the potential for Burnley to improve and capitalize on any defensive lapses from Wrexham. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyzes expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.9% probability.
Wrexham have been the stronger side, winning 43% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.9% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Wrexham clean sheets, in line with their 33% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Wrexham are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Wrexham vs Burnley| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.97 | 3.50 | 3.60 | 1.83 | 1.95 | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| 1.98 | 3.54 | 3.52 | 1.86 | 1.91 | 1.70 | 2.01 | |
| 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.60 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.65 | 2.20 | |
| 2.05 | 3.69 | 3.63 | 1.93 | 1.96 | — | — | |
| 2.00 | 3.25 | 3.32 | 1.88 | 1.96 | — | — | |
| 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.40 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.70 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 2.01 | 3.52 | 3.50 | 1.86 | 1.91 | 1.70 | 2.04 | |
| 2.02 | 3.50 | 3.40 | 1.74 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 2.16 | |
| 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.40 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
Betano | 2.00 | 3.55 | 3.70 | 1.90 | 1.95 | 1.72 | 2.05 |
Superbet | 2.07 | 3.50 | 3.55 | 1.90 | 1.92 | 1.71 | 2.07 |
BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.60 | 1.82 | 1.85 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (evenly matched 0-0)The head-to-head record between Wrexham and Burnley stands at 0 wins for Wrexham, 1 draw, and 0 wins for Burnley. Their only encounter ended in a 1-1 draw, indicating a tightly contested match. With no victories for either side, this suggests a balanced matchup where neither team has managed to claim dominance. The single draw reflects a low-scoring pattern, with both teams scoring just once in their meeting.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  West Ham | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 9 | 11 | 14 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  West Brom | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 13 | WWDLW |
| 3 |  Swansea | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 11 | LDWWD |
| 4 |  QPR | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11 | DLWWD |
| 5 |  Charlton | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 11 | DLDWW |
| 6 |  Middlesbrough | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | WDWLW |
| 16 | Wrexham | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 7 | LDDWL |
| 22 |  Derby | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 4 | LLWLD |
| 23 | Burnley | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 3 | DLDLL |
| 24 |  Preston | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 3 | LWLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonWrexham have won 6 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Wrexham 1-2 and drew with Wrexham 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 6D 11L from the last 30 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Burnley have won 1 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 11. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Norwich 4-1 and drew with Bradford 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 2W 11D 18L from the last 31 games (6% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedWrexham3-4-2-1Confirmed
Burnley4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
15 playersWrexham5
Burnley10
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Wrexham have averaged 4.0 corners per match at home; Burnley 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Wrexham have generated 1.56 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 43% of them. They put 4.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Wrexham player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
