AC Horsens vs Aarhus Prediction, Tips & Odds
AC Horsens vs Aarhus
Match Preview
The model favours AC Horsens to win this match against Aarhus, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. AC Horsens currently sits in 6th place in the Superliga standings, having accumulated 10 points from their first seven matches. Their season has seen them secure three wins, one draw, and three losses, with a slight positive goal difference of 1. Notably, they have demonstrated strong form recently, winning four of their last five matches, which highlights their ability to find the back of the net, scoring 13 goals in total. On the other hand, Aarhus is struggling in 11th place, having yet to record a win this season. They have drawn four matches and lost three, amassing only 4 points and conceding 13 goals, resulting in a goal difference of -4. Their recent form has been particularly concerning, with no wins in their last five matches and a tendency to drop points, which could further impact their confidence as they face a more in-form opponent. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 65% for AC Horsens, suggesting they are likely to take all three points. However, a potential caveat is that if Aarhus can find a way to improve their performance and convert their draws into wins, they could pose a challenge. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the analysis is conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, employing an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.6% probability.
Aarhus have been the stronger side, winning 44% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Aarhus are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
AC Horsens vs Aarhus| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 4.10 | 3.72 | 1.78 | 1.71 | 2.06 | 1.64 | 2.10 | |
| 4.10 | 3.75 | 1.80 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
| 4.26 | 3.90 | 1.83 | 1.76 | 2.15 | — | — | |
| 3.78 | 3.47 | 1.81 | 1.75 | 2.09 | — | — | |
| 3.90 | 3.50 | 1.80 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 3.90 | 3.75 | 1.83 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 4.08 | 3.72 | 1.80 | 1.71 | 2.06 | 1.64 | 2.13 | |
Betano | 4.05 | 3.70 | 1.87 | 1.78 | 2.10 | 1.65 | 2.15 |
BetVictor | 3.90 | 3.60 | 1.80 | 1.69 | 2.01 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Aarhus leads 8-2)In the last 10 matches between AC Horsens and Aarhus, Aarhus has won 8 times while AC Horsens has secured just 2 victories, with no draws recorded. The scorelines indicate a tendency for Aarhus to dominate these encounters, as they have achieved several narrow wins, such as 2-1 and 1-0, alongside heavier victories like 3-0. Notably, AC Horsens' last win over Aarhus came in November 2022, suggesting a challenging period for them in this rivalry. Overall, the head-to-head record strongly favors Aarhus, highlighting their consistent upper hand in recent matchups.
Superliga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Copenhagen | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 8 | 12 | 18 | WWWLW |
| 2 |  FC Midtjylland | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 14 | WDWDW |
| 3 |  FC Nordsjaelland | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 13 | LWWWW |
| 4 |  Viborg | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 13 | LWWWD |
| 5 |  Brondby | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 13 | LLWWW |
| 6 | AC Horsens | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 10 | WLWWL |
| 10 |  Odense | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 5 | LDDLL |
| 11 | Aarhus | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 4 | DLLDL |
| 12 |  Sonderjyske | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 1 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAC Horsens have won 5 of their last 8 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include lost to AC Horsens 2-3 and beat AC Horsens 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 4D 5L from the last 18 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Aarhus have won 6 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Randers FC 2-1 and drew with Lyngby 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 12D 7L from the last 34 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAC Horsens
No reported absences
Aarhus
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Jonas Hansen has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Jonas Hansen to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
AC Horsens have averaged 2.6 corners per match at home; Aarhus 5.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Aarhus have generated 1.80 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 44% of them. They put 4.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Aarhus player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.