Akhmat vs FC Rostov Prediction, Tips & Odds
Akhmat vs FC Rostov
Match Preview
The model favours FC Rostov to win against Akhmat, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. FC Rostov currently sits in 7th place in the league, having played three matches this season. With one win, one draw, and one loss, they have scored five goals while conceding four, resulting in a positive goal difference of one. Their recent form is solid, with three wins in their last five matches, indicating a strong attacking presence. In contrast, Akhmat is positioned 12th in the standings after two matches. They have yet to secure a win, recording one draw and one loss, which has seen them net two goals and concede three. Despite their lower league position, Akhmat has shown resilience in their last five matches, managing three wins and two draws, which suggests they can be competitive. The model output gives FC Rostov a win probability of approximately 55%, with Akhmat at around 25% and a draw at 20%. One key market percentage to note is the odds for FC Rostov to win, which appear favourable. However, a potential pitfall for Rostov could be complacency against a side that has shown they can perform well recently. The full method used for this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the analysis is conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team through an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Akhmat manage games at home, conceding just 1.06 goals per match. FC Rostov score 1.31 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 18.1% probability.
Akhmat have been the stronger side, winning 44% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 18.1% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Akhmat clean sheets, in line with their 32% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Akhmat are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Akhmat vs FC Rostov| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.45 | 3.15 | 3.16 | 2.27 | 1.64 | 1.89 | 1.81 | |
| 2.46 | 3.19 | 3.19 | 2.31 | 1.65 | — | — | |
| 2.41 | 2.85 | 2.74 | 2.26 | 1.63 | — | — | |
| 2.52 | 3.23 | 3.24 | 2.35 | 1.70 | 1.89 | 1.83 | |
Superbet | 2.47 | 3.05 | 2.95 | 2.22 | 1.62 | 1.88 | 1.82 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 4-4)The head-to-head record between Akhmat and FC Rostov stands at 4 wins for each side, with 2 matches ending in draws. The scorelines suggest a competitive rivalry, with several closely contested matches, including three encounters decided by a single goal. However, FC Rostov has shown a tendency for heavier victories, with two matches resulting in 3-0 wins against Akhmat. The most recent draw occurred in December 2023, indicating that both teams have had periods of equal competitiveness. Overall, while the record is balanced, FC Rostov has had some dominant performances in recent fixtures.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Krasnodar | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 18 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Spartak Moscow | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 13 | DWWLW |
| 3 |  Zenit | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 12 | WLWLW |
| 4 |  CSKA Moscow | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 12 | DWWDD |
| 5 |  Baltika | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 10 | WDLWW |
| 6 |  Dynamo | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 10 | WWLWL |
| 10 | Akhmat | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 6 | DWLDL |
| 12 | FC Rostov | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 5 | LLDDW |
| 14 |  Lokomotiv | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3 | LLDDL |
| 15 |  Akron | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 3 | DLDDL |
| 16 |  Fakel | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2 | LDLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAkhmat have won 13 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Akhmat 3-3 and beat Akhmat 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 11D 8L from the last 34 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
FC Rostov have won 5 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to FC Krasnodar 1-0 and lost to Akhmat 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 7D 14L from the last 32 games (34% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedAkhmat5-4-1Confirmed
FC Rostov4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
1 playerAkhmat
No reported absences
FC Rostov1
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Y. Bobrovskiy has averaged 2.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Akhmat have averaged 4.3 corners per match at home; FC Rostov 4.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Akhmat have generated 1.14 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 44% of them. They put 3.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Akhmat player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
