Angers vs Estac Troyes Prediction, Tips & Odds
Angers vs Estac Troyes
Match Preview
The model favours Angers to win this match against Estac Troyes, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Angers currently sits in 12th place with 3 points from their first three matches, having won once and lost twice. Their goal difference stands at -1, with 4 goals scored and 5 conceded. Despite a mixed start to the season, Angers has shown the ability to secure victories, as evidenced by their recent form of three wins in the last five matches. On the other hand, Estac Troyes is in 9th place with 4 points, having registered 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss this season. They have scored 4 goals but conceded 7, resulting in a goal difference of -3. Troyes has been more resilient recently, going unbeaten in their last five matches, with two wins and three draws. This suggests they can be competitive, but their defensive vulnerabilities could be exposed against Angers. The model gives Angers a win probability of approximately 55%, with the projected score of 2-1. A key market to consider is the home advantage for Angers, which often plays a significant role in Ligue 1 fixtures. However, if Troyes can maintain their unbeaten run and tighten their defence, they could pose a challenge. For a detailed breakdown of the prediction, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the analysis is based on expected goals and actual results from the season by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.0% probability.
Angers have been the stronger side, winning 31% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.0% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Angers clean sheets, in line with their 19% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Angers are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Angers vs Estac Troyes| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.10 | 3.52 | 3.54 | 1.81 | 2.02 | 1.64 | 2.12 | |
| 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.50 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.60 | 2.25 | |
| 2.10 | 3.56 | 3.68 | 1.83 | 2.09 | — | — | |
| 2.15 | 3.02 | 3.00 | 2.01 | 1.83 | — | — | |
| 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.30 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.15 | |
| 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.60 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 2.16 | 3.62 | 3.64 | 1.87 | 2.08 | 1.64 | 2.15 | |
Betano | 2.15 | 3.35 | 3.50 | 1.90 | 1.95 | 1.67 | 2.12 |
BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.40 | 1.74 | 1.94 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Angers leads 7-2)In the last 10 matches between Angers and Estac Troyes, Angers has won 7 times, drawn once, and Estac Troyes has won 2 times. The scorelines indicate a tendency for Angers to secure narrow victories, with five matches ending in a 2-1 scoreline, while Estac Troyes has managed a heavier win of 3-1 against Angers in their most recent match-up. The frequent close contests suggest a competitive rivalry, but the dominance of Angers is evident, especially considering they have not lost to Estac Troyes since 2022.
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lille | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 10 | WWDW |
| 2 |  Monaco | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 10 | DWWW |
| 3 |  Rennes | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | WWWD |
| 4 |  Lyon | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 8 | DWDW |
| 5 |  Paris FC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 8 | DWWD |
| 6 |  Strasbourg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 7 | DWWL |
| 11 | Angers | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 | DLWL |
| 12 | Estac Troyes | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 | LLWD |
| 16 |  Le Havre | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 | DLDL |
| 17 |  Toulouse | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2 | DLDL |
| 18 |  Nice | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 2 | LDLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAngers have won 6 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Angers 0-2 and beat Angers 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 6D 12L from the last 26 games (31% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Estac Troyes have won 4 of their last 7 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include beat Estac Troyes 1-2 and drew with Auxerre 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 3D 2L from the last 13 games (62% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAngers
No reported absences
Estac Troyes
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Azzedine Souifi has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Azzedine Souifi to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Angers have averaged 7.0 corners per match at home; Estac Troyes 4.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Angers have generated 1.28 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 31% of them. They put 3.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Angers player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
