Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise Prediction, Tips & Odds
Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise
Match Preview
The model favours Union St. Gilloise to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Antwerp. Currently positioned second in the Jupiler Pro League, Union St. Gilloise has made a strong start to the season with four wins and one draw from their five matches. Their attacking prowess is evident, having scored 14 goals while conceding only 3, resulting in a goal difference of +11. This offensive strength will be a key factor as they face an opponent struggling to find consistency. Antwerp sits in 10th place with a record of two wins, one draw, and two losses, accumulating 7 points. Their goal tally of 10 for and against shows they are yet to solidify their defensive capabilities, as indicated by their goal difference of 0. Recent form highlights their challenges, with only one win in their last five matches, suggesting they are on the back foot heading into this fixture. The model indicates a win probability of 65% for Union St. Gilloise, while Antwerp's chances stand at 20%, with a 15% likelihood of a draw. One caveat to consider is that if Antwerp can capitalize on any defensive lapses from Union St. Gilloise, they may yet spring a surprise. The full methodology of our prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, crafted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that assesses expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.8% probability.
Union St. Gilloise have been the stronger side, winning 68% of their matches.
Our model projects a 0-1 Union St. Gilloise win as the most likely scoreline at 13.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Union St. Gilloise are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Antwerp vs Union St. Gilloise| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 5.15 | 4.10 | 1.57 | 1.66 | 2.14 | 1.69 | 2.02 | |
| 5.00 | 4.00 | 1.50 | 1.65 | 2.10 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 5.22 | 4.31 | 1.63 | 1.69 | 2.25 | — | — | |
| 4.59 | 3.67 | 1.53 | 1.68 | 2.16 | — | — | |
| 4.80 | 3.90 | 1.60 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 5.00 | 4.00 | 1.55 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 5.28 | 4.20 | 1.61 | 1.70 | 2.19 | 1.69 | 2.05 | |
Betano | 5.40 | 4.40 | 1.62 | 1.72 | 2.18 | 1.75 | 2.02 |
BetVictor | 5.25 | 4.10 | 1.57 | 1.64 | 2.08 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Union St. Gilloise leads 7-2)In the last 10 matches between Antwerp and Union St. Gilloise, Union St. Gilloise leads with 7 wins, while Antwerp has secured 2 victories and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a generally one-sided affair, with Union St. Gilloise achieving several heavy wins, including a 5-1 and a 4-1 victory. Antwerp's most recent win came in a cup match, but overall, they have struggled to keep pace, with their last league victory over Union St. Gilloise dating back to 2024. The frequent narrow losses for Antwerp highlight the challenges they face in this matchup.
Jupiler Pro League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Gent | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Union St. Gilloise | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 13 | WWWDW |
| 3 |  Club Brugge KV | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 12 | WLWWW |
| 4 |  Charleroi | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 12 | LWWWW |
| 5 |  Zulte Waregem | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 11 | WDWDW |
| 6 |  Standard Liege | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 11 | WWWDD |
| 10 | Antwerp | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 | LLDWW |
| 16 |  RAAL La Louvière | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 17 |  OH Leuven | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 12 | -10 | 0 | LLLLL |
| 18 |  Kortrijk | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 12 | -11 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAntwerp have won 4 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Antwerp 1-4 and drew with Antwerp 4-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 6D 17L from the last 32 games (28% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Union St. Gilloise have won 6 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat Union St. Gilloise 2-3 and beat St. Truiden 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 23W 8D 3L from the last 34 games (68% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAntwerp
No reported absences
Union St. Gilloise
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Jan Boterberg has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Jan Boterberg to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Antwerp have averaged 1.0 corners per match at home; Union St. Gilloise 4.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 3.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Union St. Gilloise have generated 1.32 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 68% of them. They put 5.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Union St. Gilloise player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
