Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction, Tips & Odds
Ararat-Armenia vs AZ Alkmaar
Match Preview
The model favours Ararat-Armenia to win against AZ Alkmaar with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Ararat-Armenia currently sits in 33rd position in the standings after one match, which resulted in a loss. However, their recent form has been strong, with four wins in their last five matches, suggesting they are capable of finding the back of the net, as indicated by their goal tally of one in the league. On the other hand, AZ Alkmaar is placed 26th, also after one match, and has yet to score in this competition, conceding one goal. Their recent form shows three wins out of five, which reflects a competitive side. However, their current struggles in the league could impact their confidence heading into this match. The model indicates a win probability of 55% for Ararat-Armenia, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to consider is that Ararat-Armenia has a 60% chance of winning based on the model's analysis. A potential caveat is that if AZ Alkmaar can capitalize on early opportunities, they may disrupt Ararat-Armenia's rhythm. The full prediction method, based on expected goals and actual results, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Head to Head
UEFA Europa League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 2 |  Crystal Palace | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 3 |  Sparta Praha | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 4 |  Beşiktaş | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Union St. Gilloise | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 6 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 26 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 33 | Ararat-Armenia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 34 |  Plzen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 35 |  Lech Poznan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 | L |
| 36 |  NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonArarat-Armenia have won 8 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Ararat-Armenia 3-0 and beat Ararat-Armenia 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 5D 6L from the last 26 games (58% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
AZ Alkmaar have won 6 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to AZ Alkmaar 2-0 and beat Heerenveen 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 9D 8L from the last 38 games (55% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersArarat-Armenia
No reported absences
AZ Alkmaar
No reported absences
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
