Sturm Graz vs Marseille Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sturm Graz vs Marseille
Match Preview
The model favours Sturm Graz to win against Marseille, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Sturm Graz currently sits in 17th place after one match, where they managed a draw, earning a point without conceding or scoring. Their recent form shows promise, with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches, indicating a competitive edge as they enter this fixture. In contrast, Marseille is in 32nd place and has struggled significantly, losing all five of their last matches. Their season opener resulted in a loss, where they scored one goal but conceded four, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities. This poor form could weigh heavily on their confidence as they seek to turn their fortunes around. The model indicates a win probability of around 65% for Sturm Graz, with their projected score being 2-1. One key market to consider is the over/under on total goals, which might lean towards the over given both teams' recent scoring trends. However, Sturm Graz’s potential to falter under pressure and Marseille’s need to bounce back could complicate the outcome. For a detailed explanation of our prediction method, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Head to Head
UEFA Europa League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 2 |  Crystal Palace | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 3 |  Sparta Praha | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 4 |  Beşiktaş | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Union St. Gilloise | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 6 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 17 | Sturm Graz | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 32 | Marseille | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 34 |  Plzen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 35 |  Lech Poznan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 | L |
| 36 |  NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSturm Graz have won 12 of their last 23 matches at home, drawing 9 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Sturm Graz 3-1 and drew with Sturm Graz 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 14D 8L from the last 42 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Marseille have won 3 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include beat Marseille 0-2 and lost to Beşiktaş 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 4D 14L from the last 30 games (40% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSturm Graz
No reported absences
Marseille
No reported absences
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
