Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva Prediction, Tips & Odds
Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
Match Preview
The model favours Union St. Gilloise to win against Hapoel Beer Sheva, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Currently positioned fifth in their group, Union St. Gilloise has started the UEFA Europa League with a perfect record, winning their opening match with a strong goal difference of plus three. Their recent form has been exceptional, with five consecutive wins, showcasing their offensive strength and defensive solidity, having not conceded any goals in their last five matches. On the other hand, Hapoel Beer Sheva is struggling at the bottom of the standings in 20th place after their first match, which ended in a draw. Their recent form shows mixed results with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. This inconsistency could hinder their ability to secure a positive result against a well-performing opponent like Union St. Gilloise. The model indicates a win probability of 65% for Union St. Gilloise, with a projected score of 2-0. A key market percentage suggests that there is a 60% chance of Union St. Gilloise winning. However, a potential caveat is that if Hapoel Beer Sheva manages to tighten their defence and capitalize on any opportunities, they could pose a challenge. The full method of this analysis is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which utilizes an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.0% probability.
Union St. Gilloise have been the stronger side, winning 65% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Union St. Gilloise win as the most likely scoreline at 14.0% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Union St. Gilloise clean sheets, in line with their 48% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Union St. Gilloise are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Union St. Gilloise vs Hapoel Beer Sheva| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.34 | 5.40 | 8.70 | 1.46 | 2.47 | 1.77 | 1.94 | |
| 1.36 | 5.30 | 7.40 | 1.51 | 2.56 | — | — | |
| 1.35 | 5.00 | 8.00 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.36 | 5.48 | 8.80 | 1.46 | 2.47 | 1.77 | 1.96 | |
BetVictor | 1.30 | 5.00 | 8.50 | 1.49 | 2.39 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
UEFA Europa League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 2 |  Crystal Palace | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 3 |  Sparta Praha | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 4 |  Beşiktaş | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 5 | Union St. Gilloise | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 6 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 20 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 34 |  Plzen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 35 |  Lech Poznan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 | L |
| 36 |  NEC Nijmegen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonUnion St. Gilloise have won 17 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 0. Their recent home fixtures include drew with OH Leuven 1-1 and beat Anderlecht 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 26W 10D 4L from the last 40 games (65% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Hapoel Beer Sheva have won 6 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include beat Hapoel Petah Tikva 0-2 and beat Hapoel Ramat Gan 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 3D 8L from the last 21 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersUnion St. Gilloise
No reported absences
Hapoel Beer Sheva
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Union St. Gilloise have averaged 4.5 corners per match at home; Hapoel Beer Sheva 4.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Union St. Gilloise have generated 1.39 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 65% of them. They put 5.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Union St. Gilloise player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
