AS Roma vs Fiorentina Prediction, Tips & Odds
AS Roma vs Fiorentina
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The model favours Fiorentina to win against AS Roma, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Fiorentina enters the season with a stronger recent form, finishing fifth last season and demonstrating resilience with two wins and two draws in their last five matches. Their ability to maintain a solid defensive record, coupled with effective attacking play, positions them well as they seek to build on their previous success. AS Roma, on the other hand, finds themselves in a challenging position at the start of the new season, ranked 16th without any points from their last five matches, which saw them secure two wins but also experience inconsistency with two losses. While they have shown flashes of capability, their recent form suggests they will need to improve significantly to compete effectively against a team like Fiorentina. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 60% for Fiorentina, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a potential caveat for this prediction is AS Roma's home advantage, which could provide them with the necessary lift to perform better than expected. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.8% probability.
AS Roma have been the stronger side, winning 44% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 AS Roma win as the most likely scoreline at 15.8% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature AS Roma clean sheets, in line with their 37% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. AS Roma are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
AS Roma vs Fiorentina| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.55 | 3.90 | 5.90 | 1.85 | 1.90 | 1.91 | 1.83 | |
| 1.68 | 3.98 | 5.40 | 1.92 | 1.90 | 1.87 | 1.83 | |
| 1.67 | 3.90 | 5.50 | 1.87 | 1.90 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.68 | 3.96 | 5.34 | 1.97 | 1.92 | — | — | |
| 1.63 | 3.41 | 4.54 | 1.95 | 1.91 | — | — | |
| 1.65 | 3.75 | 5.00 | — | — | 1.91 | 1.85 | |
| 1.67 | 3.90 | 5.00 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 1.71 | 4.04 | 5.48 | 1.98 | 1.96 | 1.87 | 1.85 | |
| 1.60 | 3.75 | 5.60 | 1.92 | 1.87 | 1.92 | 1.82 | |
| 1.62 | 3.70 | 5.00 | 1.85 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.85 | |
Betano | 1.70 | 4.00 | 5.40 | 1.91 | 1.93 | 1.87 | 1.88 |
Superbet | 1.68 | 3.90 | 5.15 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.88 |
BetVictor | 1.65 | 3.80 | 5.25 | 1.85 | 1.82 | 1.83 | 1.85 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (AS Roma leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between AS Roma and Fiorentina, AS Roma has won 5 times, Fiorentina has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of results, with AS Roma achieving a notable 4-0 victory, while Fiorentina had a dominant 5-1 win. The matches have featured both narrow contests, such as the 1-0 and 2-1 results, and more decisive outcomes. The most recent draw occurred in December 2023, suggesting that both teams have had their share of success, but AS Roma has a slight edge overall in this fixture.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inter | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 2 |  Napoli | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 3 |  Lecce | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 4 |  AC Milan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Atalanta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 6 |  Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 10 | AS Roma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | Fiorentina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 |  Genoa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 19 |  Venezia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 20 |  Monza | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAS Roma have won 7 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat AS Roma 2-0 and beat AS Roma 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 8D 7L from the last 27 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Fiorentina have won 7 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Real Madrid 2-2 and beat Watford 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 9D 8L from the last 31 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
4 playersAS Roma2
Fiorentina2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Marcenaro has averaged 5.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
AS Roma have averaged 6.1 corners per match at home; Fiorentina 3.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
AS Roma have generated 1.82 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 44% of them. They put 5.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. AS Roma player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
