Monza vs Udinese Prediction, Tips & Odds
Monza vs Udinese
Match Preview
The model favours Monza to win against Udinese, with a projected scoreline of 1-0. Monza enters the new season positioned 13th in the league, having concluded the previous season with a decent form, securing three wins in their last five matches. This momentum could provide a solid foundation as they aim to capitalize on their home advantage in the opening fixture. On the other hand, Udinese finds themselves at the bottom of the table in 19th place. Despite their last five matches showing a slightly better recent form of three wins, one draw, and one loss, they will need to translate that success into the new season. Starting the campaign in a low position may add pressure, which could affect their performance. The model output indicates a win probability leaning towards Monza, highlighting their stronger finish to the last season. However, it is important to note that both teams are entering the season without any points and could be unpredictable in their opening match. The full methodology employed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilizes an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season to generate these predictions.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Best Betting Odds
Monza vs Udinese| Bookmaker | 1X2 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | |
| 1.50 | 3.00 | 1.50 | |
Double Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 7 Meetings (evenly matched 2-2)The head-to-head record between Monza and Udinese stands at 2 wins for Monza, 3 draws, and 2 wins for Udinese across their last 7 matches. This indicates a fairly balanced rivalry, with neither team significantly dominating the other. The scorelines reflect a mix of competitive encounters, including three draws and several closely contested matches, suggesting tight contests rather than one-sided affairs. The last win for either team came in May 2025 for Monza, indicating that both sides have found it difficult to secure consistent victories against each other recently.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inter | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 2 |  Napoli | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 3 |  Cagliari | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 4 |  Como | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 5 | Udinese | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 6 |  AS Roma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 |  Parma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 19 |  Genoa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 20 | Monza | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonMonza have won 3 of their last 7 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Avellino 3-0 and drew with Padova 3-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 3D 3L from the last 11 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Udinese have won 5 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Trabzonspor 1-0 and lost to Swansea 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 6D 11L from the last 27 games (37% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersMonza
No reported absences
Udinese
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Monza average 2.1 goals per match at home; Udinese 1.3 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Udinese have generated 0.93 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 37% of them. They put 3.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Udinese player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
