Bologna vs Lazio Prediction, Tips & Odds
Bologna vs Lazio
Match Preview
The model favours Bologna to win against Lazio, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Bologna starts the season in a promising second position, although they have yet to play their first match. Their recent form shows a mixed bag with two wins, one draw, and two losses in the last five matches. However, their position suggests they have built a solid foundation from the previous season. On the other hand, Lazio sits in tenth place, also without any matches played this season. Their recent form indicates a strong finish to the previous campaign, with five consecutive wins. This momentum could provide them with a psychological edge as they enter the new season, despite their lower standing. The model gives Bologna a higher win probability, likely influenced by their position and form heading into the match. However, a potential caveat is that if Lazio maintains their winning streak from last season, they could surprise Bologna. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team explains the in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Bologna manage games at home, conceding just 1.40 goals per match. Lazio score 1.57 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.3% probability.
Bologna have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.3% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Bologna clean sheets, in line with their 33% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Bologna are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Bologna vs Lazio| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.15 | 1.67 | 1.85 | 1.90 | |
| 2.19 | 3.26 | 3.64 | 2.26 | 1.66 | 1.92 | 1.79 | |
| 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.60 | 2.20 | 1.65 | 1.83 | 1.91 | |
| 2.21 | 3.22 | 3.70 | 2.30 | 1.67 | — | — | |
| 2.12 | 2.95 | 3.12 | 2.23 | 1.67 | — | — | |
| 2.15 | 3.10 | 3.50 | — | — | 1.91 | 1.85 | |
| 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.50 | 2.20 | 1.67 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 2.24 | 3.33 | 3.72 | 2.33 | 1.71 | 1.92 | 1.80 | |
| 2.17 | 3.10 | 3.45 | 2.20 | 1.65 | 1.89 | 1.85 | |
| 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.20 | 1.65 | 1.91 | 1.85 | |
Betano | 2.18 | 3.20 | 3.55 | 2.22 | 1.70 | 1.88 | 1.85 |
Superbet | 2.22 | 3.25 | 3.55 | 2.25 | 1.66 | 1.95 | 1.83 |
BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.25 | 3.50 | 2.12 | 1.62 | 1.90 | 1.80 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Lazio leads 4-3)In the last 10 matches between Bologna and Lazio, the record stands at Bologna 3 wins, 3 draws, and Lazio 4 wins. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several close encounters, including three matches ending in draws and four decided by a single goal. Notably, Bologna secured a dominant 5-0 victory in March 2025, while Lazio has also shown strength with a 3-0 win in November 2024. Overall, the results suggest a balanced rivalry, though Lazio has had a slight edge in recent meetings.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inter | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 2 |  Napoli | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 3 |  Cagliari | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 4 |  Como | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 5 |  Udinese | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 6 |  AS Roma | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 10 | Bologna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11 | Lazio | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 |  Parma | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 19 |  Genoa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 20 |  Monza | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBologna have won 5 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Bologna 1-4 and beat Bologna 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 5D 11L from the last 30 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lazio have won 5 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat Frosinone 1-2 and beat Ascoli 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 8D 8L from the last 28 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
6 playersBologna2
Lazio4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
F. Maresca has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by F. Maresca to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Bologna have averaged 4.0 corners per match at home; Lazio 4.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Bologna have generated 0.99 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 47% of them. They put 3.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Bologna player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
