Sassuolo vs Torino Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sassuolo vs Torino
Match Preview
The model favours Sassuolo to win against Torino, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Despite both teams starting the season with no points, Sassuolo's recent form suggests they may have the edge. They finished last season with a series of mixed results, recording two draws and three losses in their last five matches. Their ability to secure points in tough situations will be crucial as they seek to improve their standing this season. On the other hand, Torino comes into this match with a more positive recent form, having won three of their last five matches, along with a draw and a loss. This performance could provide them with the confidence needed to challenge Sassuolo. However, their position at the bottom of the table indicates that they need to translate their recent form into points quickly if they want to avoid a tough season ahead. The model output indicates a win probability of 55% for Sassuolo, with a key market percentage suggesting that they are likely to score at least two goals. However, a caveat exists: if Sassuolo's recent struggles continue or if Torino can replicate their recent winning form, the match could swing in favour of the visitors. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Sassuolo manage games at home, conceding just 1.43 goals per match. Torino score 1.24 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.9% probability.
Sassuolo have been the stronger side, winning 36% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Sassuolo are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sassuolo vs Torino| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.32 | 3.35 | 2.94 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.77 | 2.00 | |
| 2.40 | 3.32 | 3.12 | 2.04 | 1.80 | 1.76 | 1.95 | |
| 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.90 | 2.00 | 1.73 | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 2.39 | 3.27 | 3.07 | 2.05 | 1.80 | — | — | |
| 2.30 | 3.10 | 3.00 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 2.35 | 3.30 | 2.90 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 2.45 | 3.39 | 3.20 | 2.10 | 1.85 | 1.76 | 1.97 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Torino leads 5-1)In the last 10 matches between Sassuolo and Torino, Torino has won 5 times, Sassuolo has won once, and there have been 4 draws. This record indicates a slight edge for Torino, particularly as they have not lost to Sassuolo in the last six encounters, winning 4 and drawing 2. The scorelines reveal a mix of tightly contested matches, with several games ending 1-1 or 2-1, suggesting competitive fixtures. Sassuolo's last victory against Torino came over a year ago in September 2022, highlighting Torino's recent dominance in this matchup.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inter | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 2 |  Napoli | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 3 |  Lecce | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 4 |  AC Milan | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Atalanta | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 6 |  Juventus | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 14 | Sassuolo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 15 | Torino | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 18 |  Genoa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 19 |  Venezia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 20 |  Monza | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSassuolo have won 8 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Sassuolo 3-0 and lost to Sassuolo 1-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 4D 14L from the last 28 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Torino have won 3 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Avellino 1-1 and beat Burnley 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 5D 10L from the last 25 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSassuolo
No reported absences
Torino
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Sassuolo have averaged 4.5 corners per match at home; Torino 3.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Sassuolo have generated 1.19 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 36% of them. They put 4.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Sassuolo player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
