Austin vs San Jose Earthquakes Prediction, Tips & Odds
Austin vs San Jose Earthquakes
Match Preview
The model favours Austin to secure a narrow victory, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against San Jose Earthquakes. Despite their current position in 14th place, Austin has shown some signs of improvement with two wins and two draws in their last five matches. Their overall season has been challenging, but they have managed to score 26 goals, indicating potential for offensive output, although they have also conceded 40 goals, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities. On the other hand, San Jose Earthquakes are currently sitting comfortably in 4th place, boasting 33 points from 21 matches. However, their recent form has been concerning, as they have not won in their last five games, suffering four losses and only managing one draw. This slump has impacted their goal difference, which stands at +6, with 39 goals scored but 33 conceded. Their inability to find form could be a critical factor in this matchup. The model assigns a 42.7% probability for an Austin win, a 24.7% chance for a draw, and a 32.6% likelihood of a San Jose victory. Additionally, there is a 63.2% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored, and a 64.9% chance of both teams finding the net. A potential concern for Austin could be their inconsistent defensive performance, which might allow San Jose to exploit any lapses. For further details on the prediction method, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the in-house model analyzes expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.4% probability.
Austin have been the stronger side, winning 27% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Austin are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Austin vs San Jose Earthquakes| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.28 | 3.80 | 2.70 | 1.55 | 2.40 | 1.48 | 2.50 | |
| 2.25 | 3.50 | 2.92 | 1.51 | 2.27 | 1.45 | 2.51 | |
| 2.25 | 3.80 | 2.75 | 1.50 | 2.55 | 1.47 | 2.63 | |
| 2.34 | 3.60 | 3.05 | 1.61 | 2.40 | — | — | |
| 2.05 | 3.36 | 2.74 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.20 | 3.40 | 2.90 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
| 2.30 | 3.70 | 2.88 | 1.53 | 2.40 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 2.25 | 3.65 | 2.80 | 1.49 | 2.55 | 1.42 | 2.65 | |
Betano | 2.22 | 3.75 | 3.00 | 1.55 | 2.52 | 1.47 | 2.57 |
BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.70 | 2.80 | 1.55 | 2.25 | 1.45 | 2.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 2-2)The head-to-head record between Austin and San Jose Earthquakes over the last ten matches stands at 2 wins for Austin, 6 draws, and 2 wins for San Jose. This record indicates a tightly contested rivalry, with a notable frequency of draws, accounting for 60% of the encounters. The scorelines reflect a mix of close contests, such as the 4-3 and 3-3 matches, suggesting that while teams are competitive, they often struggle to secure decisive victories. San Jose's last win against Austin was in April 2026, highlighting a lack of recent dominance from either side.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 25 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 21 | 29 | 54 | DLDWW |
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 53 | 23 | 30 | 46 | LWLWW |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 43 | LWDDL |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 45 | DDDWL |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 41 | 31 | 10 | 43 | WWLWD |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 43 | WWWDL |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 44 | 36 | 8 | 41 | WWDDL |
| 13 | Austin | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 29 | WDDWD |
| 14 |  Atlanta United FC | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 29 | 43 | -14 | 23 | DLDLW |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 31 | 51 | -20 | 21 | LLLLD |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 18 | WLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAustin have won 8 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Colorado Rapids 1-1 and drew with San Jose Earthquakes 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 11D 16L from the last 37 games (27% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
San Jose Earthquakes have won 7 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include beat San Diego 2-3 and drew with Austin 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 6D 9L from the last 33 games (55% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedAustin3-4-3Confirmed
San Jose Earthquakes3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
7 playersAustin1
San Jose Earthquakes6
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Austin have averaged 5.3 corners per match at home; San Jose Earthquakes 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Austin have generated 1.18 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 27% of them. They put 3.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Austin player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
