St. Louis City vs Toronto FC Prediction, Tips & Odds
St. Louis City vs Toronto FC
Match Preview
The model favours St. Louis City to win against Toronto FC, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. St. Louis City currently sits in 5th place in the league standings with 37 points from 23 matches, boasting a strong home record. Their recent form shows they have not lost any of their last five matches, securing three wins and two draws. They have scored 36 goals while conceding 31, highlighting a goal difference of +5, which indicates a solid attacking and defensive performance. On the other hand, Toronto FC is positioned 11th in the league with 26 points from the same number of matches. Their season has been challenging, with only five wins, but they have managed to earn 11 draws, showing some resilience. However, they have conceded 42 goals, leading to a negative goal difference of -6, which underscores their defensive vulnerabilities. The model gives St. Louis City a win probability of approximately 60%, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to consider is the likelihood of St. Louis City winning by one goal. However, a caveat exists as Toronto FC has demonstrated the ability to draw matches, which could complicate the outcome. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyzes expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.8% probability.
St. Louis City have been the stronger side, winning 40% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 St. Louis City win as the most likely scoreline at 12.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. St. Louis City are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
St. Louis City vs Toronto FC| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.60 | 4.20 | 4.75 | 1.41 | 2.52 | 1.49 | 2.40 | |
| 1.62 | 4.50 | 4.60 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.47 | 2.63 | |
| 1.63 | 4.53 | 4.90 | 1.46 | 2.83 | — | — | |
| 1.57 | 4.11 | 4.47 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.62 | 4.00 | 4.50 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.45 | |
| 1.65 | 4.10 | 5.00 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
Betano | 1.67 | 4.50 | 5.00 | 1.47 | 2.77 | 1.50 | 2.47 |
BetVictor | 1.57 | 4.33 | 4.80 | 1.40 | 2.80 | 1.45 | 2.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (St. Louis City leads 1-0)St. Louis City leads the head-to-head record against Toronto FC with 1 win and 0 draws. The only match played between these two teams resulted in a narrow 1-0 victory for St. Louis City. This scoreline indicates a tightly contested match, with St. Louis City managing to secure the win without any heavy margin. Toronto FC has not yet recorded a win against St. Louis City, and the last encounter was in July 2023.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 25 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 21 | 29 | 54 | DLDWW |
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 53 | 23 | 30 | 46 | LWLWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 45 | DDDWL |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 43 | LWDDL |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 43 | WWWDL |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 41 | 31 | 10 | 43 | WWLWD |
| 5 | St. Louis City | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 42 | 35 | 7 | 41 | WDWDW |
| 12 | Toronto FC | 25 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 38 | 46 | -8 | 29 | LWDDW |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 28 | DDDDL |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 31 | 51 | -20 | 21 | LLLLD |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 18 | WLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSt. Louis City have won 8 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include drew with St. Louis City 3-3 and beat St. Louis City 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 10D 8L from the last 30 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Toronto FC have won 2 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Toronto FC 3-0 and beat Inter Miami 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 11D 11L from the last 31 games (29% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSt. Louis City3-4-3Confirmed
Toronto FC5-3-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
7 playersSt. Louis City3
Toronto FC4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
L. Szpala has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by L. Szpala to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
St. Louis City have averaged 5.2 corners per match at home; Toronto FC 4.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
St. Louis City have generated 1.54 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 40% of them. They put 4.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. St. Louis City player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
