Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union
Match Preview
The model favours Philadelphia Union to win with a projected scoreline of 2-0 against Sporting Kansas City. Philadelphia currently sits in 9th place in the league, having accumulated 27 points from 23 matches. Their season form indicates a steady improvement, as they have secured three wins and two draws in their last five matches, showcasing a solid attacking output with 36 goals scored. In contrast, Sporting Kansas City is struggling significantly this season, positioned 15th in the standings with only 15 points. Their record of four wins, three draws, and 16 losses reflects their difficulties, particularly in defence, where they have conceded 58 goals. Their recent form has been poor, with four losses and just one draw in their last five matches, highlighting the challenges they face. The model assigns Philadelphia Union a high win probability of around 60%, suggesting they are the clear favourites for this matchup. Despite this, one caveat is that Sporting Kansas City could potentially find motivation from their home crowd and improve their performance, which has been inconsistent this season. For a detailed look at how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team uses an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results to provide insights into fixtures.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.6% probability.
Philadelphia Union have been the stronger side, winning 36% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 Philadelphia Union win as the most likely scoreline at 12.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Philadelphia Union are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sporting Kansas City vs Philadelphia Union| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 5.45 | 4.65 | 1.48 | 1.35 | 2.74 | 1.48 | 2.43 | |
| 5.00 | 4.75 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.50 | 2.55 | |
| 5.72 | 4.97 | 1.51 | 1.41 | 3.03 | — | — | |
| 5.13 | 4.41 | 1.46 | — | — | — | — | |
| 5.00 | 4.40 | 1.50 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
| 5.75 | 4.50 | 1.50 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
Betano | 5.80 | 4.85 | 1.55 | 1.42 | 2.92 | 1.50 | 2.47 |
BetVictor | 5.50 | 4.75 | 1.50 | 1.36 | 3.00 | 1.45 | 2.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Philadelphia Union leads 4-2)In the last 10 matches between Sporting Kansas City and Philadelphia Union, both teams have won 4 times, with 2 matches ending in draws. The scorelines indicate a balanced rivalry, with several close contests, as evidenced by the four matches that ended in a draw or by a single goal margin. Notably, the most recent encounters have leaned towards tighter results, including two draws in the last three fixtures. The last win for Sporting Kansas City against Philadelphia Union was in April 2015, highlighting a competitive dynamic where both teams have found success against each other.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 25 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 21 | 29 | 54 | DLDWW |
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 53 | 23 | 30 | 46 | LWLWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 45 | DDDWL |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 43 | LWDDL |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 43 | WWWDL |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 41 | 31 | 10 | 43 | WWLWD |
| 7 | Philadelphia Union | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 46 | 39 | 7 | 33 | WWWWD |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 28 | DDDDL |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 31 | 51 | -20 | 21 | LLLLD |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 18 | WLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSporting Kansas City have won 6 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 9. Their recent home fixtures include beat Los Angeles FC 3-1 and lost to Vancouver Whitecaps 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 3D 20L from the last 31 games (26% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Philadelphia Union have won 3 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include beat New York Red Bulls 1-3 and drew with Austin 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 6D 15L from the last 33 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSporting Kansas City4-4-2Confirmed
Philadelphia Union4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
6 playersSporting Kansas City5
Philadelphia Union1
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
E. Koroleva has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by E. Koroleva to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Sporting Kansas City have averaged 4.0 corners per match at home; Philadelphia Union 6.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Philadelphia Union have generated 2.17 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 36% of them. They put 5.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Philadelphia Union player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
