Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire Prediction, Tips & Odds
Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire
Match Preview
The model favours Nashville SC to win this match against Chicago Fire, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Nashville currently sits at the top of the league standings, having played 23 matches with an impressive record of 16 wins, 5 draws, and only 2 losses, accumulating 53 points. They have demonstrated a strong offensive presence, scoring 47 goals while conceding just 17, resulting in a remarkable goal difference of 30. On the other hand, Chicago Fire occupies the third position with 38 points from 22 matches. Their record stands at 11 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, with 43 goals scored and 32 conceded, leading to a goal difference of 11. While they have shown some resilience, their recent form indicates struggles, with only one win in their last five matches, including three draws and one loss. According to the model, Nashville has a high win probability for this match, reflecting their strong season performance. However, Chicago's ability to secure draws could present a challenge, particularly if Nashville's offense falters. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.1% probability.
Nashville SC have been the stronger side, winning 51% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Nashville SC are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Nashville SC vs Chicago Fire| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.77 | 3.92 | 3.92 | 1.42 | 2.49 | 1.45 | 2.51 | |
| 1.80 | 4.00 | 3.90 | 1.50 | 2.55 | 1.47 | 2.63 | |
| 1.83 | 4.14 | 4.02 | 1.51 | 2.66 | — | — | |
| 1.79 | 3.73 | 3.58 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.75 | 3.80 | 3.80 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.45 | |
| 1.80 | 4.10 | 3.90 | 1.48 | 2.60 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
Betano | 1.85 | 4.10 | 4.15 | 1.52 | 2.65 | 1.47 | 2.57 |
BetVictor | 1.75 | 4.00 | 3.90 | 1.45 | 2.63 | 1.44 | 2.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Nashville SC leads 6-2)In the last 10 matches between Nashville SC and Chicago Fire, Nashville has won 6 times, there have been 2 draws, and Chicago has won 2 times. The scorelines indicate a tendency for Nashville to dominate, with several heavy victories, including a notable 7-2 win and a 5-1 win. The matches have often been low-scoring for Chicago, with their last victory occurring in April 2026, suggesting a struggle to find consistent success against Nashville. Overall, Nashville SC has a strong upper hand in this matchup historically.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 25 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 21 | 29 | 54 | DLDWW |
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 53 | 23 | 30 | 46 | LWLWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 45 | DDDWL |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 43 | LWDDL |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 43 | WWWDL |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 41 | 31 | 10 | 43 | WWLWD |
| 5 | Chicago Fire | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 45 | 35 | 10 | 39 | LDDDD |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 28 | DDDDL |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 31 | 51 | -20 | 21 | LLLLD |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 18 | WLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNashville SC have won 13 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Nashville SC 4-0 and beat Nashville SC 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 10D 8L from the last 37 games (51% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Chicago Fire have won 6 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 9 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Toronto FC 4-4 and drew with Seattle Sounders 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 10D 10L from the last 35 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedNashville SC4-2-3-1Confirmed
Chicago Fire4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
4 playersNashville SC1
Chicago Fire3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
L. Hernandez has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by L. Hernandez to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Nashville SC have averaged 4.4 corners per match at home; Chicago Fire 4.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Nashville SC have generated 1.37 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 51% of them. They put 3.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Nashville SC player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
