Auxerre vs Nice Prediction, Tips & Odds
Auxerre vs Nice
Match Preview
The model favours Nice to win against Auxerre, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Nice has shown some resilience early in the season, currently sitting in 13th place after one match. They secured a draw in their opening fixture, which suggests they are capable of competing, despite not yet securing a win. Their defensive record will be critical, especially as they face a team like Auxerre that has struggled significantly in its first two matches. Auxerre finds itself at the bottom of the table in 18th place, having lost both of their opening games. With three goals scored and eight conceded, their goal difference of -5 highlights serious defensive issues. The team is still looking for its first points of the season and will need to find a way to convert their attacking efforts into goals if they hope to turn their fortunes around. The model gives Nice a win probability of approximately 55%, with a projected score of 2-1. However, it is important to note that early-season matches can be unpredictable, and Auxerre may find motivation to break their losing streak. For more detailed insights on the prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results to derive these insights.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Auxerre manage games at home, conceding just 1.41 goals per match. Nice score 1.10 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.0% probability.
Auxerre have been the stronger side, winning 26% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Auxerre are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Auxerre vs Nice| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.40 | 3.20 | 2.90 | 2.10 | 1.73 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 2.94 | 3.42 | 2.51 | 1.92 | 1.90 | 1.68 | 2.06 | |
| 2.88 | 3.30 | 2.50 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.96 | 3.47 | 2.49 | 1.95 | 1.95 | — | — | |
| 2.69 | 3.22 | 2.45 | 1.98 | 1.88 | — | — | |
| 2.75 | 3.20 | 2.45 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| 2.88 | 3.30 | 2.45 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 2.98 | 3.47 | 2.55 | 1.98 | 1.96 | 1.68 | 2.08 | |
| 2.48 | 3.20 | 2.80 | 2.07 | 1.72 | 1.78 | 1.95 | |
Betano | 2.82 | 3.30 | 2.55 | 1.95 | 1.88 | 1.70 | 2.07 |
BetVictor | 2.88 | 3.40 | 2.40 | 1.84 | 1.83 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Nice leads 4-2)In the last 10 matches between Auxerre and Nice, the record stands at 2 wins for Auxerre, 4 draws, and 4 wins for Nice. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches ending in draws and a mix of narrow victories. Notably, four matches ended in a 1-1 draw, showcasing a tendency for close contests. Nice's recent win in August 2025 marked their fourth victory in this span, while Auxerre's last win was in August 2024, suggesting a slight edge for Nice in recent encounters, though the overall record remains closely contested.
Ligue 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lille | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 10 | WWDW |
| 2 |  Monaco | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 10 | DWWW |
| 3 |  Rennes | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | WWWD |
| 4 |  Lyon | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 8 | DWDW |
| 5 |  Paris FC | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 8 | DWWD |
| 6 |  Strasbourg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 7 | DWWL |
| 15 | Auxerre | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 | WLLL |
| 16 |  Le Havre | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 2 | DLDL |
| 17 |  Toulouse | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2 | DLDL |
| 18 | Nice | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 2 | LDLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAuxerre have won 4 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Auxerre 1-3 and drew with Auxerre 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 9D 11L from the last 27 games (26% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Nice have won 4 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Paris FC 3-0 and drew with Hull City 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 14D 10L from the last 31 games (23% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedAuxerre4-2-3-1Confirmed
Nice3-4-2-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
9 playersAuxerre5
Nice4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Francois Letexier has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Francois Letexier to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Auxerre have averaged 6.2 corners per match at home; Nice 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Auxerre have generated 0.97 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 26% of them. They put 4.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Auxerre player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
