AZ Alkmaar vs ADO Den Haag Prediction, Tips & Odds
AZ Alkmaar vs ADO Den Haag
Match Preview
The model favours AZ Alkmaar to win against ADO Den Haag, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. AZ Alkmaar, currently positioned 12th in the league, enters the season with a mixed form, having won three of their last five matches. The team’s recent performance suggests potential for improvement, with their goal-scoring ability being a key factor to watch as they look to kick off the new season positively. On the other hand, ADO Den Haag has shown strong form leading into this match, boasting five consecutive wins in their last five matches. However, it’s important to note that these results came from the previous season, and the transition into a new campaign may pose challenges. Their lower league position indicates they will need to carry forward this momentum to avoid early struggles. The model indicates a win probability of 60% for AZ Alkmaar, with a projected score of 2-1. A key market to consider is the odds for AZ Alkmaar to score over 1.5 goals. One caveat to this prediction is the potential for ADO Den Haag to disrupt AZ’s rhythm, especially if they capitalize on any defensive lapses. For a detailed understanding of the prediction, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season. The Daily Punt Analysis Team provides insights based on these data-driven methods.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.2% probability.
AZ Alkmaar have been the stronger side, winning 52% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 AZ Alkmaar win as the most likely scoreline at 13.2% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature AZ Alkmaar clean sheets, in line with their 29% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. AZ Alkmaar are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
AZ Alkmaar vs ADO Den Haag| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.40 | 4.85 | 6.75 | 1.48 | 2.60 | 1.65 | 2.10 | |
| 1.36 | 5.00 | 7.30 | 1.42 | 2.51 | 1.66 | 2.06 | |
| 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.00 | 1.47 | 2.63 | 1.65 | 2.20 | |
| 1.39 | 5.36 | 7.22 | 1.48 | 2.71 | — | — | |
| 1.40 | 4.25 | 5.61 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.40 | 4.60 | 6.50 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.15 | |
| 1.38 | 5.00 | 8.00 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 1.40 | 5.17 | 7.55 | 1.42 | 2.51 | 1.66 | 2.09 | |
| 1.34 | 5.20 | 7.50 | 1.49 | 2.60 | 1.73 | 1.98 | |
| 1.40 | 4.60 | 6.50 | 1.44 | 2.50 | 1.62 | 2.15 | |
Betano | 1.42 | 5.30 | 7.60 | 1.53 | 2.60 | 1.72 | 2.05 |
Superbet | 1.39 | 5.15 | 6.90 | 1.52 | 2.55 | 1.72 | 2.05 |
BetVictor | 1.36 | 5.00 | 7.50 | 1.44 | 2.63 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (AZ Alkmaar leads 7-2)In the last 10 matches between AZ Alkmaar and ADO Den Haag, AZ Alkmaar has won 7 times, with 1 draw and 2 victories for ADO Den Haag. The scorelines indicate a generally strong performance from AZ, including three matches where they won by a margin of three or more goals. ADO Den Haag's two wins were narrow, suggesting that their victories were hard-fought, but they have not won against AZ since 2020 in a friendly. The overall record highlights a lopsided rivalry, with AZ Alkmaar dominating the encounters historically.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Excelsior | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 2 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 3 |  Ajax | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 4 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Groningen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 6 |  Heerenveen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 16 | ADO Den Haag | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 17 |  Willem II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAZ Alkmaar have won 13 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat ADO Den Haag 2-0 and beat Olympiakos Piraeus 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 8D 7L from the last 31 games (52% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
ADO Den Haag have won 5 of their last 7 matches on the road, drawing 0 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include lost to ADO Den Haag 2-0 and beat Lommel United 0-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 1D 2L from the last 12 games (75% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedAZ Alkmaar4-2-3-1Confirmed
ADO Den Haag4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
9 playersAZ Alkmaar6
ADO Den Haag3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
E. Blank has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by E. Blank to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
AZ Alkmaar average 2.0 goals per match at home; ADO Den Haag 2.6 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
AZ Alkmaar have generated 1.39 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 52% of them. They put 4.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. AZ Alkmaar player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
