Cambuur vs Excelsior Prediction, Tips & Odds
Cambuur vs Excelsior
Match Preview
The model favours Cambuur to win against Excelsior, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Cambuur enters the new season with a strong position following a solid conclusion to the last campaign, where they secured three wins in their last five matches. This form indicates a positive momentum, suggesting they will be competitive from the outset. Excelsior, on the other hand, has also shown impressive form with five consecutive wins leading into the season. However, their position of 15th in the standings reflects a need for improvement as they aim to avoid relegation struggles. Their recent success may not fully translate into the new season, especially against a top contender like Cambuur. The model estimates a high win probability for Cambuur, but it is important to note that the first match of the season can be unpredictable. Factors such as player fitness and tactical adjustments can significantly impact the outcome. For further insights into this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the in-house model evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs this comprehensive approach to offer data-driven insights.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.8% probability.
Excelsior have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Excelsior are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Cambuur vs Excelsior| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.56 | 3.45 | 2.56 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.60 | 3.35 | 2.57 | 1.73 | 2.07 | 1.56 | 2.24 | |
| 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.55 | 1.65 | 2.10 | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 2.68 | 3.51 | 2.63 | 1.76 | 2.12 | — | — | |
| 2.33 | 3.31 | 2.51 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.50 | 3.25 | 2.50 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 2.62 | 3.40 | 2.62 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.66 | 3.44 | 2.67 | 1.76 | 2.11 | 1.56 | 2.28 | |
| 2.60 | 3.35 | 2.55 | 1.70 | 2.12 | 1.54 | 2.32 | |
| 2.50 | 3.25 | 2.50 | 1.73 | 2.00 | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
Betano | 2.67 | 3.30 | 2.67 | 1.75 | 2.12 | 1.55 | 2.37 |
Superbet | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.67 | 1.76 | 2.07 | 1.60 | 2.25 |
BetVictor | 2.60 | 3.60 | 2.60 | 1.68 | 2.02 | 1.55 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Cambuur leads 6-4)In the last 10 matches between Cambuur and Excelsior, Cambuur has won 6 times, while Excelsior has secured 4 victories. The scorelines indicate a mix of competitive and one-sided encounters, with Cambuur achieving notable wins, including a dominant 7-2 and a 4-0 victory. However, Excelsior has also had its moments, such as a 4-1 win over Cambuur. There have been no draws in this sample, highlighting a clear winning trend for both sides. The closest match was a 1-0 win for Cambuur, reflecting that while some matches have been high-scoring, others were tightly contested.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excelsior | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 2 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 3 |  Ajax | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 4 |  AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Telstar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 6 |  Groningen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 16 |  ADO Den Haag | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 17 |  Willem II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 18 | Cambuur | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCambuur have won 3 of their last 7 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Excelsior 0-4 and lost to Volos NFC 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 4W 2D 7L from the last 13 games (31% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Excelsior have won 8 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat Excelsior 0-4 and beat De Graafschap 1-5.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 7D 7L from the last 24 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
3 playersCambuur2
Excelsior1
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
A. Lindhout has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by A. Lindhout to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Cambuur have averaged 9.0 corners per match at home; Excelsior 3.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Excelsior have generated 0.72 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 42% of them. They put 3.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Excelsior player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
