Bahia vs Internacional Prediction, Tips & Odds
Bahia vs Internacional
Match Preview
The model favours Bahia to win against Internacional, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Bahia currently sits in fifth place in the Serie A standings, showcasing a strong season overall with 34 points from 23 matches. Despite their recent struggles, having drawn their last five matches, they have maintained a solid goal difference of +4, which reflects their ability to score more than they concede throughout the season. On the other hand, Internacional finds themselves in a precarious position, sitting in 17th place with just 23 points from 22 matches. Their form has been inconsistent, highlighted by one win in their last five matches. With a goal difference of -4, they have struggled defensively, conceding more goals than they have scored, which has contributed to their low standing in the league. The model gives Bahia a win probability of approximately 55% for this match, with a projected score of 2-1. However, the caveat lies in Bahia's recent inability to secure victories, which could impact their confidence heading into this match. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team uses an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Bahia manage games at home, conceding just 1.39 goals per match. Internacional score 1.38 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.9% probability.
Bahia have been the stronger side, winning 39% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.9% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Bahia clean sheets, in line with their 23% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Bahia are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Bahia vs Internacional| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.91 | 3.34 | 4.05 | 2.01 | 1.77 | 1.82 | 1.86 | |
| 1.90 | 3.50 | 3.90 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.91 | 3.25 | 3.90 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 1.90 | 3.40 | 3.90 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.96 | 3.43 | 4.16 | 2.05 | 1.80 | 1.82 | 1.88 | |
| 2.02 | 3.50 | 3.45 | 1.82 | 1.94 | 1.66 | 2.08 | |
| 1.91 | 3.25 | 3.90 | 2.00 | 1.75 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
Betano | 1.93 | 3.50 | 4.05 | 2.02 | 1.83 | 1.83 | 1.91 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Internacional leads 4-3)The head-to-head record between Bahia and Internacional shows Bahia winning 3 times, Internacional winning 4 times, and 3 matches ending in a draw over their last 10 encounters. The scorelines indicate a fairly competitive rivalry, with several matches finishing closely, as evidenced by the three draws and Bahia's narrow victories of 1-0. However, Internacional has secured two heavier wins of 2-0 in this period. Bahia's last win against Internacional came in March 2026, suggesting that while the overall record is close, Internacional has had the upper hand more recently.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 44 | 20 | 24 | 51 | WLDWL |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 45 | LWWDD |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 20 | 11 | 41 | DWDWW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 41 | WWDDD |
| 5 |  Cruzeiro | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 34 | 33 | 1 | 39 | WWWWL |
| 6 | Bahia | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 34 | 28 | 6 | 37 | WDDDD |
| 16 | Internacional | 24 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 24 | 28 | -4 | 25 | DDDDL |
| 19 |  Vasco DA Gama | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 22 | LLDDL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 23 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 24 | 46 | -22 | 14 | WDLDL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBahia have won 8 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Bahia 0-0 and beat Bahia 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 10D 9L from the last 31 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Internacional have won 5 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Palmeiras 0-0 and lost to Corinthians 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 11D 9L from the last 32 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersBahia
No reported absences
Internacional
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Bahia have averaged 6.7 corners per match at home; Internacional 3.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Bahia have generated 1.38 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 39% of them. They put 4.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Bahia player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
