Corinthians vs Santos Prediction, Tips & Odds
Corinthians vs Santos
Match Preview
The model favours Corinthians to win against Santos, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 9th place, Corinthians have shown a balanced performance this season with 8 wins, 8 draws, and 6 losses, accumulating 32 points from 22 matches. Their goal difference of +4 indicates a solid defensive record, allowing only 20 goals, which is crucial for their mid-table standing. Recent form has been mixed but promising, with two wins and two draws in their last five matches. Santos, on the other hand, finds themselves in 14th place with 25 points from the same number of games. Their record of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 9 losses highlights their struggles, particularly in defence, having conceded 35 goals this season. Although they have picked up three wins in their last five matches, which suggests an upward trend, their overall inconsistency remains a concern. According to the model, Corinthians have a win probability of around 55%, while Santos sit at approximately 25%. The projected score is 2-1 in favour of Corinthians, with the key market reflecting a home win at around 45%. One caveat to consider is the potential for Santos to exploit any defensive lapses from Corinthians, given their attacking capability. The full methodology behind this prediction is outlined in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Corinthians have kept a clean sheet in 49% of matches. Santos average 1.5 goals per game.
Corinthians manage games at home, conceding just 0.76 goals per match. Santos score 1.52 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.6% probability.
Corinthians have been the stronger side, winning 44% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Corinthians win as the most likely scoreline at 17.6% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Corinthians clean sheets, in line with their 49% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Corinthians are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Corinthians vs Santos| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.78 | 3.40 | 4.65 | 2.18 | 1.66 | 1.99 | 1.71 | |
| 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.50 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.80 | 3.25 | 4.50 | — | — | 2.00 | 1.73 | |
| 1.83 | 3.30 | 4.33 | 2.20 | 1.65 | 2.00 | 1.75 | |
| 1.83 | 3.50 | 4.78 | 2.22 | 1.69 | 1.99 | 1.73 | |
| 1.86 | 3.35 | 4.20 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 1.89 | 1.81 | |
| 1.80 | 3.25 | 4.50 | 2.20 | 1.62 | 2.00 | 1.73 | |
Betano | 1.87 | 3.40 | 4.55 | 2.25 | 1.67 | 2.00 | 1.75 |
BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.50 | 2.11 | 1.63 | 2.00 | 1.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Corinthians leads 4-2)The head-to-head record between Corinthians and Santos shows 4 wins for Corinthians, 4 draws, and 2 wins for Santos across their last 10 encounters. The results indicate a competitive rivalry, with a notable number of closely contested matches, as evidenced by four draws and several scorelines within a single goal margin. Notably, there have been low-scoring games, and only one match in this sample saw a team win by more than one goal. Santos last won against Corinthians in February 2024, highlighting a recent struggle to secure victories in this matchup.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 44 | 20 | 24 | 51 | WLDWL |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 45 | LWWDD |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 20 | 11 | 41 | DWDWW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 36 | 29 | 7 | 41 | WWDDD |
| 5 |  Cruzeiro | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 34 | 33 | 1 | 39 | WWWWL |
| 6 |  Bahia | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 34 | 28 | 6 | 37 | WDDDD |
| 10 | Corinthians | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 26 | 24 | 2 | 32 | LLWDD |
| 14 | Santos | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 33 | 36 | -3 | 26 | DWLDL |
| 19 |  Vasco DA Gama | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 22 | LLDDL |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 | |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 23 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 24 | 46 | -22 | 14 | WDLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCorinthians have won 11 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Rosario Central 1-0 and lost to Cruzeiro 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 13D 10L from the last 41 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Santos have won 5 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Macara 0-0 and beat Vasco DA Gama 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 15D 12L from the last 42 games (36% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersCorinthians
No reported absences
Santos
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Corinthians have averaged 4.5 corners per match at home; Santos 3.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Corinthians have generated 0.96 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 44% of them. They put 4.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Corinthians player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
