Bate Borisov vs AF Elbasani Prediction, Tips & Odds
Bate Borisov vs AF Elbasani
Match Preview
The model favours Bate Borisov to win against AF Elbasani, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Bate Borisov enters this match with mixed form, having recorded one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five matches. This inconsistency may hinder their performance, but they still possess the experience and pedigree that often comes into play in European competitions. In contrast, AF Elbasani has shown stronger recent form, with three wins, one draw, and only one loss in their last five fixtures. Their ability to secure points consistently could give them the confidence needed to challenge Bate Borisov, especially as they aim to make a mark in this qualifying round. However, their overall season standing and performance metrics are not available for deeper analysis. The model indicates a win probability of 55% for Bate Borisov, reflecting their home advantage and historical performance in such fixtures. However, one caveat to consider is Bate Borisov's recent struggles, which could open the door for an upset. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Bate Borisov manage games at home, conceding just 1.08 goals per match. AF Elbasani score 1.64 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.3% probability.
AF Elbasani have been the stronger side, winning 45% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. AF Elbasani are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Bate Borisov vs AF Elbasani| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.25 | 3.20 | 2.10 | 2.05 | 1.70 | 1.80 | 1.83 | |
| 3.34 | 3.20 | 2.14 | 2.14 | 1.67 | 1.85 | 1.83 | |
| 3.25 | 3.25 | 2.05 | 2.10 | 1.65 | 1.87 | 1.87 | |
| 3.27 | 3.11 | 2.09 | 2.14 | 1.65 | — | — | |
| 3.06 | 2.96 | 1.98 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.25 | 3.10 | 2.15 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.10 | 2.08 | 1.73 | 1.83 | 1.83 | |
| 3.36 | 3.20 | 2.16 | 2.14 | 1.67 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 3.50 | 3.30 | 2.02 | 2.08 | 1.65 | 1.83 | 1.85 | |
Betano | 3.25 | 3.25 | 2.15 | 2.10 | 1.67 | 1.87 | 1.85 |
Superbet | 3.20 | 3.20 | 2.20 | 2.07 | 1.68 | 1.87 | 1.85 |
BetVictor | 3.30 | 3.25 | 2.15 | 2.04 | 1.67 | 1.83 | 1.85 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (evenly matched 0-0)The head-to-head record between Bate Borisov and AF Elbasani shows 0 wins for Bate Borisov, 1 draw, and 0 wins for AF Elbasani. Their only encounter ended in a 1-1 draw, indicating a closely contested match rather than a one-sided affair. This scoreline suggests that both teams were evenly matched during that fixture, and neither side has managed to secure a victory in their historical meetings. The lack of wins for either team may point to a competitive balance in their head-to-head history.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonBate Borisov have won 0 of their last 5 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include drew with AF Elbasani 0-0 and lost to FC Gomel 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 1W 8D 3L from the last 12 games (8% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
AF Elbasani have won 2 of their last 4 matches on the road, drawing 0 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include beat Vllaznia Shkodër 1-2 and lost to Bylis 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 2D 4L from the last 11 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersBate Borisov
No reported absences
AF Elbasani
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
D. Sakhi has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by D. Sakhi to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Bate Borisov average 0.9 goals per match at home; AF Elbasani 1.6 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
AF Elbasani have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 45% of their matches and averaging 1.6 goals per game. AF Elbasani player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
