Bolton vs Lincoln Prediction, Tips & Odds
Bolton vs Lincoln
Match Preview
The model favours Bolton to win against Lincoln with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Bolton currently sits in third place in the Championship standings after one match, having secured a victory with a goal difference of +1. Their season form reflects a solid start, with two wins in their last five matches, indicating a competitive edge as they look to build momentum early in the season. On the other hand, Lincoln finds themselves in 21st place, having lost their opening match and struggling with a recent form of just two wins in their last five games. With a goal difference of -1, they will need to improve both defensively and offensively if they hope to turn around their fortunes in this match. The model output suggests a win probability of 65% for Bolton, with a projected score of 2-1. A key market to note is the likelihood of Bolton scoring at least two goals, which stands at 55%. However, it is important to acknowledge that an early goal from Lincoln could shift the dynamics of the match, making it more competitive. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis comes from The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Bolton manage games at home, conceding just 0.85 goals per match. Lincoln score 1.38 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.2% probability.
Bolton have been the stronger side, winning 46% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Bolton are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Bolton vs Lincoln| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.40 | 3.35 | 2.84 | 1.93 | 1.85 | 1.73 | 2.05 | |
| 2.53 | 3.26 | 2.70 | 1.90 | 1.87 | 1.68 | 2.03 | |
| 2.38 | 3.40 | 2.80 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.32 | 3.33 | 3.03 | 1.91 | 1.89 | — | — | |
| 2.45 | 3.10 | 2.80 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.62 | 2.00 | 1.80 | — | — | |
| 2.34 | 3.28 | 2.98 | 1.90 | 1.87 | 1.69 | 2.05 | |
Betano | 2.47 | 3.35 | 2.90 | 1.95 | 1.88 | 1.70 | 2.07 |
BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.30 | 2.90 | 1.88 | 1.79 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Bolton leads 6-1)In the last 10 matches between Bolton and Lincoln, Bolton has won 6 times, drawn 3 times, and Lincoln has won once. The scorelines indicate a generally strong advantage for Bolton, with four of their victories coming by two or more goals, including a 3-0 win on two occasions. Lincoln's lone win, a 4-2 result, suggests they can score but have struggled to maintain consistency. The frequency of draws, particularly in recent encounters, highlights competitive moments, yet Lincoln's last victory was notably in 2025, underlining their difficulties against Bolton historically.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Millwall | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 6 | WW |
| 2 |  West Brom | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | WW |
| 3 |  Charlton | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 4 |  Wolves | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | WD |
| 5 |  QPR | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | DW |
| 6 |  Blackburn | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | WD |
| 8 | Bolton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | DW |
| 22 | Lincoln | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 | LL |
| 23 |  Norwich | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 | LL |
| 24 |  Southampton | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | -1 | WL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBolton have won 4 of their last 6 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Bolton 2-1 and beat Bolton 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 4D 3L from the last 13 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lincoln have won 5 of their last 10 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Middlesbrough 2-1 and beat Derby 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 1D 6L from the last 13 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersBolton
No reported absences
Lincoln
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Bolton average 1.3 goals per match at home; Lincoln 1.4 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Bolton have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 46% of their matches and averaging 1.3 goals per game. Bolton player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
