Bournemouth vs Everton Prediction, Tips & Odds
Bournemouth vs Everton
Match Preview
The model favours Bournemouth to win against Everton, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Bournemouth enters the new season aiming to build on a strong finish, having secured three wins in their last five matches. This form suggests a positive momentum that could carry into their opening game. Although they start the season in 16th place, their recent performances indicate they are capable of competing effectively. On the other hand, Everton, currently positioned 4th, will look to translate their last five matches' mixed form—two wins, one draw, and two losses—into a successful start to the season. While they have shown potential, the inconsistency in results may hinder their ability to secure points early on. Their challenge will be to maintain focus and build on their previous season's efforts. According to the model, Bournemouth has a higher win probability, with the projection reflecting their recent form. However, one caveat is that opening-day jitters can affect performance, and if Everton finds their rhythm quickly, they could pose a significant threat. The full methodology, which relies on expected goals and actual results throughout the season, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.3% probability.
Bournemouth have been the stronger side, winning 46% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 1 bookmaker. Bournemouth are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Bournemouth vs Everton| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.75 | 3.90 | 4.20 | 1.65 | 2.10 | 1.65 | 2.20 | |
| 1.85 | 4.01 | 4.43 | 1.76 | 2.24 | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Bournemouth leads 7-3)In the last 10 matches between Bournemouth and Everton, Bournemouth has won 7 times, Everton has won 3 times, with no draws recorded. The scorelines indicate a fairly competitive rivalry, though Bournemouth has had the upper hand, often securing narrow victories such as 1-0 and 2-1, alongside a few heavier wins like 3-0. Everton's last victory in this fixture came in December 2025, suggesting a challenging period for them against Bournemouth, particularly given their inability to secure a draw in these encounters.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 2 |  Brentford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 3 | Everton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 4 |  Hull City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Ipswich | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 6 |  Leeds | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 13 | Bournemouth | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 19 |  Tottenham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 20 |  Coventry | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBournemouth have won 5 of their last 11 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 0. Their recent home fixtures include beat Bournemouth 10-1 and beat Bournemouth 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 12D 1L from the last 24 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Everton have won 6 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Newcastle 1-3 and lost to VfB Stuttgart 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 9D 9L from the last 26 games (31% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersBournemouth
No reported absences
Everton
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Bournemouth average 2.1 goals per match at home; Everton 1.4 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Bournemouth have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 46% of their matches and averaging 2.1 goals per game. Bournemouth player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
