Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest Prediction, Tips & Odds
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest
Match Preview
The model favours Liverpool to win this match against Nottingham Forest, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Liverpool enters the season with the ambition of climbing higher in the league standings after finishing in a competitive position last year. Despite a mixed form in their last five matches, where they recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses, their historical performance and home advantage at Anfield make them the clear favourites. Nottingham Forest, on the other hand, will be looking to improve upon their previous season's struggles. They finished low in the standings and will be eager to turn their fortunes around. Their recent form shows two wins, but they also faced three losses in their last five matches, indicating inconsistencies that could hinder their performance in this upcoming fixture. The model indicates a win probability of around 65% for Liverpool. However, a key caveat is that if Nottingham Forest can leverage their underdog status and exploit any defensive lapses from Liverpool, they could make this a competitive match. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team has applied an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.9% probability.
Liverpool have been the stronger side, winning 46% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Liverpool win as the most likely scoreline at 12.9% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Liverpool clean sheets, in line with their 29% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Liverpool are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.47 | 4.80 | 6.95 | 1.59 | 2.39 | 1.72 | 2.00 | |
| 1.40 | 4.75 | 6.50 | 1.50 | 2.40 | 1.73 | 2.10 | |
| 1.44 | 4.40 | 6.00 | — | — | 1.73 | 2.05 | |
| 1.42 | 4.50 | 6.50 | 1.57 | 2.38 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.52 | 4.84 | 6.70 | 1.63 | 2.49 | 1.71 | 2.04 | |
Betano | 1.47 | 4.55 | 6.70 | 1.60 | 2.42 | 1.72 | 2.05 |
BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.60 | 7.00 | 1.55 | 2.25 | 1.70 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 9 Meetings (Liverpool leads 5-3)In the last nine matches between Liverpool and Nottingham Forest, Liverpool has won 5 times, Nottingham Forest has won 3 times, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a mix of results, with Liverpool achieving three narrow wins by a single goal and one heavier victory with a score of 3-0. Nottingham Forest's victories include a notable 3-0 win and a 1-0 win, showcasing their capability to secure results against Liverpool. The draw occurred in 2025, suggesting competitive matchups, but overall, Liverpool has a slight edge in this series.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 2 |  Brentford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 3 |  Everton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 4 |  Hull City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Ipswich | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 6 |  Leeds | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 10 | Liverpool | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 16 | Nottingham Forest | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 19 |  Tottenham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 20 |  Coventry | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLiverpool have won 9 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Como 0-0 and lost to Monaco 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 4D 11L from the last 28 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Nottingham Forest have won 7 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Barcelona 1-0 and lost to Udinese 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 9D 10L from the last 33 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersLiverpool
No reported absences
Nottingham Forest
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Liverpool average 1.9 goals per match at home; Nottingham Forest 1.5 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Liverpool have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 46% of their matches and averaging 1.9 goals per game. Liverpool player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
