Fulham vs Chelsea Prediction, Tips & Odds
Fulham vs Chelsea
Match Preview
The model favours Chelsea to win this match against Fulham, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Chelsea enters this season positioned 6th in the league, which suggests a competitive squad aiming for European qualification. Although both teams are yet to play this season, Chelsea's recent form shows two wins in their last five matches, indicating a slight edge in momentum as they look to build on their prior successes. Fulham, currently sitting 10th, has also experienced a mixed bag of results recently, with two wins in their last five games as well. While they have shown resilience, their last five matches include two losses, which could affect their confidence heading into this match. Starting their season against a strong Chelsea side will be a significant challenge. According to the model, Chelsea has a higher win probability in this matchup, reflecting their stronger position and recent form. However, a caveat is that both teams are starting fresh this season, meaning early-game unpredictability could play a role. The full methodology of our prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the in-house model evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season. The Daily Punt Analysis Team provides these insights to help guide your betting decisions.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.2% probability.
Chelsea have been the stronger side, winning 40% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Chelsea are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Fulham vs Chelsea| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.60 | 3.75 | 1.90 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 4.05 | 3.96 | 1.88 | 1.67 | 2.24 | 1.58 | 2.23 | |
| 4.00 | 3.90 | 1.85 | 1.62 | 2.20 | 1.60 | 2.38 | |
| 4.06 | 3.99 | 1.85 | 1.69 | 2.27 | — | — | |
| 3.50 | 3.38 | 1.82 | 1.67 | 2.23 | — | — | |
| 3.80 | 3.75 | 1.85 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.38 | |
| 3.90 | 4.00 | 1.83 | 1.67 | 2.20 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 4.11 | 4.02 | 1.91 | 1.72 | 2.31 | 1.58 | 2.26 | |
| 4.10 | 3.80 | 1.85 | 1.64 | 2.23 | 1.57 | 2.28 | |
| 3.80 | 3.70 | 1.85 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.57 | 2.38 | |
Betano | 3.95 | 4.00 | 1.91 | 1.67 | 2.27 | 1.60 | 2.25 |
Superbet | 3.90 | 3.90 | 1.88 | 1.65 | 2.27 | 1.60 | 2.30 |
BetVictor | 4.00 | 3.90 | 1.83 | 1.62 | 2.11 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Chelsea leads 6-3)In the last 10 matches between Fulham and Chelsea, Chelsea has won 6 times, Fulham has won 3 times, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches decided by a single goal, showcasing a mix of narrow victories and a few more decisive wins. Notably, Fulham's last win against Chelsea was in January 2026, while Chelsea has maintained a recent edge with three wins in their last four encounters. Overall, the results reflect a challenging matchup for Fulham, particularly in light of Chelsea's stronger record.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 2 |  Brentford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 3 |  Everton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 4 |  Hull City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Ipswich | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 6 |  Leeds | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 8 | Chelsea | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 9 | Fulham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 19 |  Tottenham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 20 |  Coventry | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFulham have won 6 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat VfB Stuttgart 1-0 and lost to Crystal Palace 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 5D 11L from the last 25 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Chelsea have won 5 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Johor Darul Takzim FC 3-3 and lost to Sunderland 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 4D 14L from the last 30 games (40% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
4 playersFulham2
Chelsea2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Brooks has averaged 7.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 4.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Fulham average 1.0 goals per match at home; Chelsea 1.9 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Chelsea have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 40% of their matches and averaging 1.9 goals per game. Chelsea player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
