Newcastle vs Liverpool Prediction, Tips & Odds
Newcastle vs Liverpool
Match Preview
The model favours Liverpool to win against Newcastle, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Liverpool enters this match with a slightly more stable recent form, having secured two wins in their last five fixtures. They finished the previous season in 14th place but will be looking to improve their standing this season. Their offensive capabilities will be crucial, particularly as they aim to convert opportunities into goals, which they did successfully in their last two wins. On the other hand, Newcastle starts the season in a precarious position, currently placed 17th with a mixed form of two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. While they have shown resilience in some games, their overall inconsistency could be a concern. Newcastle will need to find a way to tighten their defense and increase goal production to challenge effectively in this match. The model output indicates that Liverpool has a higher win probability for this match. However, one caveat is that early-season matches can produce unexpected results, as teams are still finding their rhythm. The full method, which utilizes an in-house model analyzing expected goals and actual results, is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team provides this insight to help fans understand the data behind the prediction.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.9% probability.
Liverpool have been the stronger side, winning 46% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.9% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Liverpool are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Newcastle vs Liverpool| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.20 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.83 | 1.91 | |
| 4.10 | 3.94 | 1.88 | 1.48 | 2.44 | 1.47 | 2.49 | |
| 4.00 | 3.90 | 1.87 | 1.50 | 2.60 | 1.44 | 2.63 | |
| 4.13 | 3.95 | 1.87 | 1.54 | 2.56 | — | — | |
| 3.52 | 3.79 | 1.88 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.90 | 3.70 | 1.85 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.60 | |
| 4.10 | 3.75 | 1.85 | 1.53 | 2.50 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 4.16 | 4.00 | 1.91 | 1.48 | 2.44 | 1.47 | 2.53 | |
| 3.75 | 3.80 | 1.91 | 1.49 | 2.60 | 1.44 | 2.63 | |
| 3.80 | 3.70 | 1.85 | 1.50 | 2.45 | 1.44 | 2.63 | |
Betano | 4.05 | 3.85 | 1.93 | 1.55 | 2.55 | 1.47 | 2.57 |
Superbet | 3.90 | 3.90 | 1.90 | 1.53 | 2.50 | 1.52 | 2.50 |
BetVictor | 4.00 | 3.80 | 1.85 | 1.50 | 2.36 | 1.44 | 2.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Liverpool leads 8-1)In the last 10 matches between Newcastle and Liverpool, Liverpool has won 8 times, Newcastle has won once, and there has been 1 draw. This record indicates a strong dominance by Liverpool, particularly highlighted by several decisive victories, including 4-1 and 4-2 scorelines. The matches have often been competitive, as seen in the 3-3 draw and a few narrow wins; however, Newcastle's only victory came in the League Cup and was not in the league context. Newcastle has not won against Liverpool in their last 9 encounters, which further emphasizes Liverpool's superiority in this matchup.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 2 |  Brentford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 3 |  Everton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 4 |  Hull City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Ipswich | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 6 |  Leeds | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 10 | Liverpool | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 12 | Newcastle | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 19 |  Tottenham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 20 |  Coventry | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNewcastle have won 5 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Strasbourg 1-1 and lost to Bayer Leverkusen 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 4D 13L from the last 27 games (37% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Liverpool have won 4 of their last 11 matches on the road, drawing 0 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Aston Villa 4-2 and lost to Manchester United 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 4D 11L from the last 28 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedNewcastle4-2-3-1Confirmed
Liverpool4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
10 playersNewcastle4
Liverpool6
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
S. Attwell has averaged 0.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Newcastle average 1.7 goals per match at home; Liverpool 1.9 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Liverpool have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 46% of their matches and averaging 1.9 goals per game. Liverpool player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
