Tottenham vs Newcastle Prediction, Tips & Odds
Tottenham vs Newcastle
Match Preview
The model favours Tottenham to win against Newcastle, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Despite both teams starting the season without any points, Tottenham's recent form gives them a notable edge. They have recorded three wins and two draws in their last five matches, showcasing a strong performance trend heading into the new season. This momentum could be crucial as they aim to build on their previous success. In contrast, Newcastle enters this match with a less favourable outlook. Their form has been shaky, with only one win in their last five outings, alongside three losses. This inconsistency may hinder their confidence as they face a Tottenham side that is looking to capitalize on their home advantage. The model suggests a win probability of approximately 60% for Tottenham, with a projected score of 2-1. However, the caveat here is that both teams are starting afresh in the new season, meaning early games can often produce unexpected results. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team relies on an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.3% probability.
Tottenham have been the stronger side, winning 36% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 1 bookmaker. Tottenham are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Tottenham vs Newcastle| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.00 | 3.75 | 3.30 | 1.60 | 2.20 | 1.57 | 2.38 | |
| 2.11 | 3.95 | 3.48 | 1.70 | 2.34 | 1.66 | 2.21 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Newcastle leads 6-1)Newcastle hold the edge in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 10 meetings with 3 draws and 1 Tottenham win. The record points to a tie Newcastle have controlled for years, though the draws show Tottenham have at times kept it tight.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 2 |  Brentford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 3 |  Everton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 4 |  Hull City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  Ipswich | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 6 |  Leeds | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 12 | Newcastle | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | L |
| 19 | Tottenham | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
| 20 |  Coventry | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonTottenham have won 5 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Tottenham 2-2 and beat Tottenham 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 8D 10L from the last 28 games (36% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Newcastle have won 5 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Valencia 1-2 and lost to Bristol City 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 4D 13L from the last 27 games (37% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersTottenham
No reported absences
Newcastle
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Tottenham average 1.4 goals per match at home; Newcastle 1.7 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Tottenham have generated 1.93 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 36% of them. They put 8.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Tottenham player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
