Bournemouth vs Liverpool Prediction, Tips & Odds
Bournemouth vs Liverpool
Match Preview
The model favours Liverpool to win against Bournemouth, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Liverpool currently occupies 6th place in the Premier League, with a record of 1 win, 2 draws, and no losses from their first three matches. They have scored 6 goals while conceding 4, showcasing a positive goal difference of 2. Their overall form reflects resilience, with a recent run of one win and three draws, indicating they are competitive in matches. On the other hand, Bournemouth finds themselves in 15th position with just 2 points from their opening three games, failing to secure a win (0W, 2D, 1L). Their goal-scoring has been modest, with 4 goals scored and 5 conceded, leaving them with a goal difference of -1. Their recent form has been troubling, managing only three draws and two losses in their last five matches, which raises concerns about their ability to convert chances into wins. According to the model, Liverpool has a win probability of 43.8%, while Bournemouth's is at 30.8%. The projected score aligns with a likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 61.0% and both teams to score at 63.2%. However, the caveat for Liverpool is their recent tendency to draw matches, which could open the door for Bournemouth if they manage to exploit any defensive lapses. The full method used in this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which employs an in-house model analyzing expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.2% probability.
Liverpool have been the stronger side, winning 45% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Liverpool are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Bournemouth vs Liverpool| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.14 | 3.80 | 2.17 | 1.48 | 2.43 | 1.44 | 2.58 | |
| 3.20 | 3.75 | 2.20 | 1.44 | 2.63 | 1.44 | 2.80 | |
| 3.16 | 3.85 | 2.21 | 1.54 | 2.58 | — | — | |
| 2.81 | 3.50 | 2.18 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.15 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.62 | |
| 3.10 | 3.75 | 2.15 | 1.53 | 2.50 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 3.22 | 3.90 | 2.23 | 1.48 | 2.43 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
Betano | 3.10 | 3.80 | 2.15 | 1.52 | 2.62 | 1.44 | 2.67 |
BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.90 | 2.15 | 1.49 | 2.39 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Liverpool leads 8-2)In the last 10 matches between Bournemouth and Liverpool, Liverpool has won 8 times, while Bournemouth has secured 2 victories, with no draws recorded. The scorelines indicate a dominant trend for Liverpool, highlighted by several significant wins, including a 9-0 thrashing. Bournemouth's victories were narrow, with a 3-2 win in January 2026 being their most recent success. Liverpool's wins tend to feature a mix of tight contests and heavy defeats for Bournemouth, showcasing a clear advantage in their historical matchups.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Hull City | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 6 | LWW |
| 5 |  Brentford | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | DDW |
| 6 | Liverpool | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | WDD |
| 15 | Bournemouth | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 | DDL |
| 18 |  Tottenham | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 1 | DLL |
| 19 |  Fulham | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 0 | LLL |
| 20 |  Coventry | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBournemouth have won 5 of their last 12 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 0. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Bournemouth 1-1 and beat Bournemouth 10-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 14D 2L from the last 27 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Liverpool have won 5 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include beat Liverpool 0-2 and drew with Newcastle 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 6D 11L from the last 31 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersBournemouth
No reported absences
Liverpool
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Michael Oliver has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Michael Oliver to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Bournemouth have averaged 3.0 corners per match at home; Liverpool 6.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Liverpool have generated 2.98 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 45% of them. They put 7.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Liverpool player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
