Fulham vs Manchester United Prediction, Tips & Odds
Fulham vs Manchester United
Match Preview
The model favours Manchester United to win against Fulham, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Manchester United currently sits in 11th place in the Premier League standings, having secured 4 points from their opening three matches. While their form has been inconsistent, with one win, one draw, and one loss, they have managed to score 7 goals, indicating a capable attack. Their goal difference of +1 suggests they can create and convert chances, which could be crucial against a struggling Fulham side. Fulham, on the other hand, finds themselves in a precarious position at 19th in the league, with no points from their first three matches. Their defensive record shows they have conceded 7 goals while scoring only 4, leading to a goal difference of -3. Fulham's recent form reflects their difficulties, having lost three out of their last five matches. This lack of momentum and inability to secure points puts them at a significant disadvantage heading into this fixture. The model output gives Manchester United a win probability of approximately 60%, with Fulham at 25% and a draw at 15%. However, it is worth noting that if Fulham can solidify their defence and take advantage of any lapses in United's form, they could pose a challenge. For a comprehensive overview of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results over the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.6% probability.
Manchester United have been the stronger side, winning 54% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Manchester United are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Fulham vs Manchester United| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.62 | 3.88 | 2.01 | 1.51 | 2.42 | 1.46 | 2.52 | |
| 3.50 | 3.90 | 2.00 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.45 | 2.75 | |
| 3.63 | 3.90 | 2.01 | 1.58 | 2.51 | — | — | |
| 3.20 | 3.57 | 1.97 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.40 | 3.60 | 2.00 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
| 3.60 | 3.90 | 1.95 | 1.53 | 2.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 3.68 | 3.94 | 2.04 | 1.51 | 2.42 | 1.46 | 2.56 | |
Betano | 3.55 | 3.95 | 2.05 | 1.57 | 2.50 | 1.47 | 2.55 |
BetVictor | 3.50 | 3.90 | 1.95 | 1.51 | 2.34 | 1.44 | 2.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Manchester United leads 7-1)In the last 10 matches between Fulham and Manchester United, Manchester United has won 7 times, Fulham has won once, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines suggest a generally one-sided affair, with Manchester United often securing narrow victories, as seen in their 1-0 and 2-1 wins. Fulham's only victory came in a 2-1 match back in February 2024, indicating a struggle to find success against this opponent. The presence of only a few draws shows that matches tend to favor Manchester United, with Fulham last winning over a year ago.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Hull City | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 6 | LWW |
| 5 |  Brentford | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | DDW |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | WDD |
| 11 | Manchester United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 4 | DWL |
| 18 |  Tottenham | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 1 | DLL |
| 19 | Fulham | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 0 | LLL |
| 20 |  Coventry | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFulham have won 7 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 8. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Crystal Palace 2-3 and beat AFC Wimbledon 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 5D 14L from the last 29 games (34% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Manchester United have won 5 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Manchester United 2-2 and lost to Hull City 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 7D 6L from the last 28 games (54% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersFulham
No reported absences
Manchester United
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Peter Bankes has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Peter Bankes to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Fulham have averaged 7.0 corners per match at home; Manchester United 5.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Manchester United have generated 2.36 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 54% of them. They put 6.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Manchester United player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
