Leeds vs Crystal Palace Prediction, Tips & Odds
Leeds vs Crystal Palace
Match Preview
The model favours Leeds to win this match with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 9th place, Leeds has started the season positively, remaining unbeaten with one win and two draws from their first three fixtures. Their goal difference of +1, with three goals scored and two conceded, reflects a solid defensive performance complemented by a moderate attacking output. The team's recent form showcases their strength, having achieved three wins and two draws in their last five matches. On the other hand, Crystal Palace is positioned 13th in the standings, having played three matches with one win and two losses. They have struggled defensively, conceding eight goals while scoring four, resulting in a goal difference of -4. Their recent form indicates challenges, with only two wins in their last five matches, highlighting inconsistency and defensive vulnerabilities that Leeds could exploit. The model gives Leeds a win probability of 43.9%, while the likelihood of a draw stands at 27.5%, and Crystal Palace's chances of winning are at 28.6%. One key market to note is the probability of over 2.5 goals at 50.0%. However, a caveat for Leeds is that if they fail to convert their chances or if Crystal Palace's attack finds its rhythm, the match could take an unexpected turn. The full methodology is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.8% probability.
Leeds have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.8% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Leeds clean sheets, in line with their 35% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Leeds are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Leeds vs Crystal Palace| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.90 | 1.69 | 2.20 | 1.65 | 2.11 | |
| 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.75 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.67 | 2.20 | |
| 1.71 | 4.02 | 4.97 | 1.68 | 2.22 | — | — | |
| 1.70 | 3.66 | 4.24 | 1.71 | 2.20 | — | — | |
| 1.73 | 3.75 | 4.60 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.15 | |
| 1.70 | 4.00 | 4.75 | 1.67 | 2.20 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.74 | 4.11 | 5.03 | 1.74 | 2.27 | 1.65 | 2.13 | |
Betano | 1.78 | 4.00 | 4.70 | 1.70 | 2.22 | 1.65 | 2.15 |
BetVictor | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.75 | 1.64 | 2.08 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 3-3)In the last ten matches between Leeds and Crystal Palace, both teams have won three times, with four matches ending in draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of results, with some matches being tightly contested, such as the 0-0 draws and the 1-1 friendly, while others featured heavier defeats, like Leeds' 1-5 loss to Crystal Palace in April 2023 and Palace's 4-1 victory over Leeds in November 2020. The presence of multiple draws suggests a competitive rivalry, but the occasional lopsided results highlight that both teams have had their moments of dominance.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Hull City | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 6 | LWW |
| 5 |  Brentford | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 5 | DDW |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 5 | WDD |
| 9 | Leeds | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | DDW |
| 13 | Crystal Palace | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3 | WLL |
| 18 |  Tottenham | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 1 | DLL |
| 19 |  Fulham | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 0 | LLL |
| 20 |  Coventry | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonLeeds have won 8 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Leeds 1-1 and beat Leeds 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 12D 6L from the last 31 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Crystal Palace have won 6 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include beat Crystal Palace 2-3 and lost to Everton 2-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 8D 14L from the last 36 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersLeeds
No reported absences
Crystal Palace
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Adam Herczeg has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Adam Herczeg to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Leeds have averaged 3.8 corners per match at home; Crystal Palace 1.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 3.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Leeds have generated 1.79 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 42% of them. They put 3.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Leeds player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
