Burnley vs West Ham Prediction, Tips & Odds
Burnley vs West Ham
Match Preview
The model favours West Ham to win against Burnley, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. West Ham enters the season with a solid form from their previous matches, having gone unbeaten in their last five games, securing two wins and three draws. This positive momentum could provide them with the confidence needed to start the season strong, especially considering they finished higher in the standings last season. Burnley, on the other hand, has struggled recently, with three losses and two draws in their last five matches. They will be looking to turn around their fortunes as they begin the new campaign, but the lack of recent victories may weigh on their confidence. Their season opener at home will be crucial for setting the tone, yet they will need to overcome the challenges posed by West Ham's stronger recent form. The model gives West Ham a higher win probability, suggesting they have a 55% chance of winning this match. While the data leans in their favour, Burnley playing at home could create an unpredictable dynamic. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyses expected goals and actual results throughout the season. The Daily Punt Analysis Team remains cautious about the potential for surprises in the opening match of the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.1% probability.
West Ham have been the stronger side, winning 37% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. West Ham are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Burnley vs West Ham| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.88 | 3.20 | 2.40 | 2.50 | 1.50 | 2.20 | 1.67 | |
| 3.14 | 3.42 | 2.17 | 1.76 | 2.03 | 1.60 | 2.16 | |
| 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.20 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.38 | |
| 3.30 | 3.54 | 2.23 | 1.82 | 2.07 | — | — | |
| 2.76 | 3.11 | 2.24 | 1.76 | 2.08 | — | — | |
| 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.20 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 3.20 | 3.50 | 2.15 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 3.14 | 3.44 | 2.18 | 1.73 | 2.07 | 1.58 | 2.23 | |
| 2.90 | 3.45 | 2.25 | 1.68 | 2.10 | 1.56 | 2.28 | |
| 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.20 | 1.75 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
Betano | 3.10 | 3.55 | 2.25 | 1.75 | 2.15 | 1.60 | 2.27 |
BetVictor | 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.20 | 1.73 | 1.96 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (West Ham leads 5-2)The head-to-head record between Burnley and West Ham shows 2 wins for Burnley, 3 draws, and 5 wins for West Ham over the last 10 matches. This indicates a slight advantage for West Ham, but the scorelines reveal a mix of outcomes. While West Ham has secured several narrow victories, including two 2-1 wins and a 1-0 win, there have also been tighter matches, such as three drawn games. Burnley's last win against West Ham was in July 2020, suggesting a trend of West Ham's dominance in recent encounters.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Millwall | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 6 | WW |
| 2 |  West Brom | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 6 | WW |
| 3 |  Charlton | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 4 |  Wolves | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | WD |
| 5 |  QPR | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | DW |
| 6 |  Blackburn | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | WD |
| 17 | West Ham | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 1 | LD |
| 18 | Burnley | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 1 | LD |
| 22 |  Lincoln | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 | LL |
| 23 |  Norwich | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 | LL |
| 24 |  Southampton | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | -1 | WL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBurnley have won 1 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include drew with West Ham 2-2 and drew with Notts County 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 2W 10D 15L from the last 27 games (7% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
West Ham have won 5 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Burnley 2-2 and drew with 1. FC Magdeburg 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 10D 7L from the last 27 games (37% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedBurnley3-4-2-1Confirmed
West Ham4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
8 playersBurnley5
West Ham3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Smith has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by J. Smith to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Burnley average 1.1 goals per match at home; West Ham 1.6 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
West Ham have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 37% of their matches and averaging 1.6 goals per game. West Ham player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
