CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas Prediction, Tips & Odds
CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas
Match Preview
The model favours Guadalajara Chivas to win this match with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Chivas currently sit in 12th place in the Liga MX standings, having played three matches this season. Their record shows one win, one draw, and one loss, with a total of four points. Despite scoring only two goals, their goal difference of -1 indicates a slightly tougher start to the season compared to Pachuca. However, Chivas have shown resilience, managing two draws and a recent win, which suggests they are finding their footing. On the other hand, CF Pachuca is in 13th place, with a record of one win and two losses from their three matches, earning just three points. Their recent form has been concerning, with only one victory in their last five games, which includes four consecutive losses. While they have scored four goals, their goal difference of +1 suggests they have struggled defensively. This inconsistency may hinder their chances against a more stable Chivas side. The model gives Chivas a win probability of approximately 55% for this match, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to note is their expected goal advantage over Pachuca. However, a potential caveat could be Pachuca's home advantage, which could spark an unexpected performance. For more details on our methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyzes expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
CF Pachuca manage games at home, conceding just 1.10 goals per match. Guadalajara Chivas score 1.48 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.2% probability.
Guadalajara Chivas have been the stronger side, winning 52% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Guadalajara Chivas are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
CF Pachuca vs Guadalajara Chivas| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.64 | 3.50 | 2.46 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 2.15 | |
| 2.69 | 3.38 | 2.43 | 1.78 | 1.98 | 1.60 | 2.16 | |
| 2.63 | 3.50 | 2.40 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.69 | 3.38 | 2.43 | 1.78 | 1.98 | 1.60 | 2.19 | |
| 2.70 | 3.35 | 2.35 | 1.71 | 2.07 | 1.54 | 2.23 | |
Betano | 2.67 | 3.40 | 2.62 | 1.91 | 1.95 | 1.67 | 2.12 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Guadalajara Chivas leads 6-1)In the last 10 matches between CF Pachuca and Guadalajara Chivas, Guadalajara Chivas has won 6 times, CF Pachuca has won once, and there have been 3 draws. This record indicates a clear advantage for Guadalajara Chivas. The scorelines reveal a pattern of relatively tight contests, with several low-scoring matches and only one instance of Pachuca scoring more than one goal. Notably, Pachuca's last victory in this matchup came over two years ago, emphasizing Chivas' dominance in recent encounters. Overall, the historical data suggests a challenging matchup for Pachuca.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 13 | WWWDW |
| 2 |  Atlas | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 12 | WWLWW |
| 3 |  Toluca | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 10 | WDWLW |
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | WWDWL |
| 5 |  Puebla | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 10 | WWDLW |
| 6 |  Club Tijuana | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 10 | LWDWW |
| 15 | CF Pachuca | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 3 | LLLW |
| 16 |  Atletico San Luis | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2 | LDDL |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 0 | LLLLL |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 15 | -12 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCF Pachuca have won 9 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Puebla 2-3 and lost to Club Queretaro 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 4D 10L from the last 29 games (52% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Guadalajara Chivas have won 8 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include beat Guadalajara Chivas 0-1 and beat Seattle Sounders 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 8D 7L from the last 31 games (52% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersCF Pachuca
No reported absences
Guadalajara Chivas
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
CF Pachuca have averaged 4.6 corners per match at home; Guadalajara Chivas 8.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Guadalajara Chivas have generated 1.49 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 52% of them. They put 6.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Guadalajara Chivas player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
