Atlas vs Club Queretaro Prediction, Tips & Odds
Atlas vs Club Queretaro
Match Preview
The model favours Atlas with a projected scoreline of 2-1 against Club Queretaro. Atlas currently sits in 9th place in the league standings, having played three matches this season. Their record of two wins and one loss demonstrates a competitive start, although they have conceded as many goals as they have scored, resulting in a goal difference of zero. The key takeaway for Atlas is their ability to find the net, scoring four goals in three matches, which positions them well for this encounter. On the other hand, Club Queretaro is slightly ahead in the standings at 7th place, also with six points from three matches. They have recorded two wins and one loss, with a slightly better goal difference of plus one, having scored five goals while conceding four. However, their recent form shows inconsistency, with two losses in their last five matches. This could impact their confidence going into the match against a determined Atlas side. The model projects a win probability of around 55% for Atlas, reflecting their home advantage and solid scoring capability. The key market percentage suggests a competitive match, with Atlas likely to dominate possession. One caveat for this prediction is Atlas's defensive vulnerability, as they have allowed four goals thus far. The full method for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Atlas manage games at home, conceding just 1.26 goals per match. Club Queretaro score 1.04 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.5% probability.
Atlas have been the stronger side, winning 39% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.5% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Atlas clean sheets, in line with their 35% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Atlas are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Atlas vs Club Queretaro| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.00 | 3.55 | 3.45 | 1.83 | 1.95 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 2.02 | 3.42 | 3.49 | 1.87 | 1.88 | 1.70 | 2.04 | |
Betano | 2.02 | 3.50 | 3.75 | 1.95 | 1.90 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Atlas leads 5-2)In the last 10 matches between Atlas and Club Queretaro, Atlas has won 5 times, there have been 3 draws, and Club Queretaro has secured 2 victories. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several high-scoring encounters, including two 3-3 draws. However, Atlas has shown a tendency to edge out their opponents, particularly evident in their 2-0 and 3-1 wins. The last victory for Club Queretaro over Atlas came in September 2024, suggesting that Atlas has been more dominant in recent matchups. Overall, the results reflect a balanced but slightly favorable record for Atlas.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 13 | WWWDW |
| 2 | Atlas | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 12 | WWLWW |
| 3 |  Toluca | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 10 | WDWLW |
| 4 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | WWDWL |
| 5 |  Puebla | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 10 | WWDLW |
| 6 |  Club Tijuana | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 10 | LWDWW |
| 10 | Club Queretaro | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 7 | LDWWL |
| 16 |  Atletico San Luis | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2 | LDDL |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 0 | LLLLL |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 15 | -12 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAtlas have won 5 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat Atlas 2-1 and lost to Atlas 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 6D 13L from the last 31 games (39% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Club Queretaro have won 4 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include drew with U.N.A.M. - Pumas 0-0 and drew with Los Angeles FC 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 11D 9L from the last 28 games (29% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAtlas
No reported absences
Club Queretaro
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Atlas have averaged 3.5 corners per match at home; Club Queretaro 5.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Atlas have generated 0.82 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 39% of them. They put 3.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Atlas player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
