U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Necaxa Prediction, Tips & Odds
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Necaxa
Match Preview
The model favours U.N.A.M. - Pumas to win against Necaxa, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. U.N.A.M. - Pumas currently sits in 4th place in the Liga MX standings, having played three matches with two wins and one loss. Their offensive output has been solid, scoring seven goals, while their defence has allowed five, resulting in a goal difference of plus two. This early season form indicates that they are capable of competing for the top spots. On the other hand, Necaxa is positioned 8th, also with two wins and one loss from three matches. They have a goal tally of five and have conceded five, which gives them a neutral goal difference. While they have shown potential with recent wins, their overall performance indicates a lack of consistency compared to U.N.A.M. - Pumas. The model provides a win probability of approximately 55% for U.N.A.M. - Pumas, with a projected score of 2-1. One caveat to consider is that both teams have similar records, which could lead to a more competitive match than anticipated. The full method used for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyses expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.1% probability.
U.N.A.M. - Pumas have been the stronger side, winning 44% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. U.N.A.M. - Pumas are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Necaxa| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.90 | 3.70 | 3.65 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.62 | 2.15 | |
| 1.89 | 3.56 | 3.72 | 1.71 | 2.08 | 1.60 | 2.16 | |
| 1.90 | 3.70 | 3.70 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.62 | 2.25 | |
| 1.96 | 3.79 | 3.85 | 1.76 | 2.16 | — | — | |
| 1.93 | 3.36 | 3.42 | 1.74 | 2.11 | — | — | |
| 1.85 | 3.30 | 3.40 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.10 | |
| 1.91 | 3.75 | 3.80 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.91 | 3.56 | 3.72 | 1.71 | 2.08 | 1.60 | 2.19 | |
| 1.88 | 3.55 | 3.65 | 1.68 | 2.12 | 1.56 | 2.18 | |
| 1.91 | 3.20 | 3.40 | 1.73 | 1.95 | 1.62 | 2.10 | |
Betano | 1.98 | 3.55 | 3.70 | 1.78 | 2.10 | 1.62 | 2.20 |
Superbet | 1.97 | 3.60 | 3.65 | 1.73 | 2.12 | 1.64 | 2.17 |
BetVictor | 1.91 | 3.70 | 3.60 | 1.68 | 2.02 | 1.60 | 2.20 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Necaxa leads 4-3)In the last 10 matches between U.N.A.M. - Pumas and Necaxa, the record stands at 3 wins for U.N.A.M. - Pumas, 3 draws, and 4 wins for Necaxa. This indicates a fairly competitive rivalry, with Necaxa holding a slight edge. The scorelines reflect a mix of tight contests and a few decisive results, including a 3-1 victory for Necaxa and a 2-0 win over U.N.A.M. - Pumas. Notably, U.N.A.M. - Pumas has not won against Necaxa in their last three encounters, with the last victory occurring in July 2022.
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Club America | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 8 | 13 | WWWDW |
| 2 |  Atlas | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 12 | WWLWW |
| 3 |  Toluca | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 10 | WDWLW |
| 4 |  Guadalajara Chivas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 10 | WWDWL |
| 5 |  Puebla | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 10 | WWDLW |
| 6 |  Club Tijuana | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 10 | LWDWW |
| 9 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 7 | DWWL |
| 11 | Necaxa | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 6 | LLWW |
| 16 |  Atletico San Luis | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2 | LDDL |
| 17 |  Santos Laguna | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 0 | LLLLL |
| 18 |  FC Juarez | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 15 | -12 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonU.N.A.M. - Pumas have won 7 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Club Queretaro 0-0 and lost to CF Pachuca 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 10D 8L from the last 32 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Necaxa have won 4 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include beat New York City FC 1-2 and lost to Philadelphia Union 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 5D 13L from the last 28 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedU.N.A.M. - Pumas5-3-2Confirmed
Necaxa3-4-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersU.N.A.M. - Pumas
No reported absences
Necaxa
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
M. Ortiz has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by M. Ortiz to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
U.N.A.M. - Pumas have averaged 3.6 corners per match at home; Necaxa 4.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
U.N.A.M. - Pumas have generated 0.80 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 44% of them. They put 2.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. U.N.A.M. - Pumas player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
