Charlotte vs Chicago Fire Prediction, Tips & Odds
Charlotte vs Chicago Fire
Match Preview
The model favours Charlotte to win this match against Chicago Fire, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Charlotte currently sits in fifth place in the standings, having accumulated 39 points from 24 matches. Their recent form has been strong, with three wins and two draws in their last five matches, indicating a positive trajectory as they push for playoff positioning. Notably, they have scored 42 goals while conceding 33, resulting in a healthy goal difference of +9. On the other hand, Chicago Fire occupies the fourth position, also with 39 points but from one fewer match. Their recent form has been concerning, with no wins in their last five matches, featuring four draws and one loss. Despite their overall solid goal tally of 44 goals, their inability to convert matches into wins could be detrimental as they face a confident Charlotte side. The model gives Charlotte a win probability of 55%, with the projected score of 2-1 reflecting their current momentum. However, a key caveat is that if Chicago can break their winless streak and find their scoring touch, they could pose a significant threat. For a detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.6% probability.
Charlotte have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 12.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Charlotte are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Charlotte vs Chicago Fire| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.03 | 3.84 | 3.10 | 1.39 | 2.59 | 1.39 | 2.72 | |
| 2.10 | 4.00 | 3.00 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.00 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 2.05 | 3.80 | 3.10 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
Betano | 2.10 | 3.85 | 3.20 | 1.47 | 2.75 | 1.42 | 2.75 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 8 Meetings (Charlotte leads 5-3)In the last eight matches between Charlotte and Chicago Fire, Charlotte has won 5 times while Chicago Fire has secured 3 victories, with no draws recorded. The scorelines indicate a mix of competitiveness and occasional lopsided results, as seen in matches like Chicago's 4-1 win over Charlotte and Charlotte's 4-3 victory. However, several matches have been closely contested, including three matches decided by a single goal. Chicago Fire last won in this fixture in May 2025, suggesting that Charlotte has had the upper hand more recently in their encounters.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 25 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 21 | 29 | 54 | DLDWW |
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 53 | 23 | 30 | 46 | LWLWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 61 | 46 | 15 | 45 | DDDWL |
| 2 |  Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 28 | 4 | 43 | LWDDL |
| 3 |  FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 42 | 7 | 43 | WWWDL |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 41 | 31 | 10 | 43 | WWLWD |
| 4 | Charlotte | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 45 | 36 | 9 | 40 | DWDWW |
| 5 | Chicago Fire | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 45 | 35 | 10 | 39 | LDDDD |
| 14 |  Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 30 | -5 | 28 | DDDDL |
| 15 |  CF Montreal | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 31 | 51 | -20 | 21 | LLLLD |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 26 | 59 | -33 | 18 | WLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCharlotte have won 11 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Charlotte 0-0 and beat Charlotte 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 6D 11L from the last 33 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Chicago Fire have won 6 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 9 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Toronto FC 4-4 and drew with Seattle Sounders 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 10D 10L from the last 35 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersCharlotte
No reported absences
Chicago Fire
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Charlotte have averaged 5.3 corners per match at home; Chicago Fire 4.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Charlotte have generated 1.50 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 48% of them. They put 4.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Charlotte player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
