Charlton vs Derby Prediction, Tips & Odds
Charlton vs Derby
Match Preview
The model favours Derby to win this match against Charlton, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Derby enters the new season with a strong recent form, finishing their last five matches with two wins and three losses. Despite the mixed results, they have shown the ability to score, which could translate well into the upcoming match as they look to maintain their competitive edge. Charlton, on the other hand, has had a slightly better last five matches, with two wins, one draw, and two losses. However, the lack of recent continuity may pose challenges as they seek to establish their rhythm early in the season. Their position in the standings is currently 11th, and they will be eager to capitalize on their home advantage at The Valley. The model output indicates a win probability favouring Derby, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage suggests that Derby has a higher chance of winning based on their last performances. However, if Charlton can leverage their home crowd effectively and start strong, they could pose a significant threat. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team uses an in-house model to assess expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Charlton manage games at home, conceding just 1.16 goals per match. Derby score 1.54 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.7% probability.
Charlton have been the stronger side, winning 36% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Charlton are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Charlton vs Derby| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.66 | 3.15 | 2.66 | 2.15 | 1.67 | 1.83 | 1.90 | |
| 2.68 | 3.12 | 2.64 | 2.13 | 1.69 | 1.82 | 1.86 | |
| 2.75 | 3.10 | 2.63 | 2.20 | 1.65 | 1.87 | 1.90 | |
| 2.78 | 3.19 | 2.74 | 2.20 | 1.71 | — | — | |
| 2.53 | 2.96 | 2.52 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.62 | 3.00 | 2.62 | — | — | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 2.70 | 3.20 | 2.70 | 2.10 | 1.73 | 1.83 | 1.83 | |
| 2.68 | 3.12 | 2.64 | 2.13 | 1.69 | 1.82 | 1.88 | |
| 2.65 | 3.15 | 2.63 | 2.10 | 1.68 | 1.81 | 1.90 | |
| 2.63 | 3.00 | 2.63 | 2.10 | 1.67 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
Betano | 2.72 | 3.15 | 2.72 | 2.15 | 1.75 | 1.80 | 1.95 |
BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.25 | 2.63 | 2.05 | 1.66 | 1.83 | 1.87 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Derby leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Charlton and Derby, Derby leads with 5 wins, while Charlton has 3 victories and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines suggest a competitive rivalry, with several tight encounters, including three matches decided by a single goal. Notably, Derby has managed to secure a couple of 2-0 and 2-1 victories, indicating their ability to win by a margin, while Charlton has recorded a significant 3-0 win in the past. The last time Charlton triumphed was in February 2024, suggesting a recent struggle against Derby.
Championship Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Blackburn | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 2 |  Wolves | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | D |
| 3 |  Birmingham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 |  Bolton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | Derby | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 |  Middlesbrough | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 12 | Charlton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 22 |  Lincoln | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 23 |  Wrexham | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 24 |  Southampton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCharlton have won 3 of their last 9 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Charlton 2-1 and lost to Charlton 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 7D 9L from the last 25 games (36% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Derby have won 6 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Rotherham 1-1 and lost to Burton Albion 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 2D 12L from the last 26 games (46% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
9 playersCharlton4
Derby5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
B. Speedie has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by B. Speedie to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Charlton average 1.0 goals per match at home; Derby 1.5 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Charlton have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 36% of their matches and averaging 1.0 goals per game. Charlton player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
