Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh Prediction, Tips & Odds
Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh
Match Preview
The model favours Al-Nassr to win against Al-Fateh, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Al-Nassr enters the new season after finishing in a mid-table position last year, where they struggled with consistency. Their recent form shows two wins in their last five matches, indicating potential for improvement as they look to start the season strong. Key areas to watch will be their attacking capabilities and how they can build on their past performance to secure early points. On the other hand, Al-Fateh also looks to turn a new leaf this season following a challenging end to the last. With only one win in their last five matches, their form has not been promising. They will need to address their defensive vulnerabilities and find a way to convert chances into goals if they hope to compete effectively against Al-Nassr. The model indicates a win probability of 60% for Al-Nassr, suggesting they have a significant edge going into this match. However, a potential caveat is that both teams are starting the season afresh, and unexpected changes in form could influence the outcome. For a detailed understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team uses an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.6% probability.
Al-Nassr have been the stronger side, winning 77% of their matches.
Our model projects a 3-0 Al-Nassr win as the most likely scoreline at 13.6% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Al-Nassr clean sheets, in line with their 50% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 1 bookmaker. Al-Nassr are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Al-Nassr vs Al-Fateh| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.12 | 8.40 | 17.00 | 1.22 | 4.00 | 1.83 | 1.85 | |
| 1.07 | 9.00 | 15.25 | 1.18 | 3.84 | 1.75 | 1.92 | |
| 1.10 | 8.50 | 20.00 | 1.22 | 3.80 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 1.12 | 10.43 | 15.27 | 1.23 | 4.01 | — | — | |
| 1.13 | 6.95 | 10.60 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.11 | 8.50 | 13.00 | — | — | 1.75 | 1.91 | |
| 1.12 | 7.50 | 15.00 | 1.25 | 4.00 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 1.08 | 11.10 | 18.50 | 1.18 | 3.84 | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 1.10 | 8.50 | 15.00 | 1.22 | 4.10 | 1.81 | 1.88 | |
| 1.11 | 8.50 | 13.00 | 1.22 | 3.80 | 1.75 | 1.91 | |
Betano | 1.17 | 8.25 | 14.00 | 1.27 | 3.80 | 1.80 | 1.95 |
BetVictor | 1.11 | 7.50 | 15.00 | 1.22 | 3.90 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Al-Nassr leads 8-1)In the last 10 matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Fateh, Al-Nassr has won 8 times, with 1 draw and 1 win for Al-Fateh. This record indicates a significant advantage for Al-Nassr, particularly highlighted by several heavy victories, including a 5-1 win and a 5-0 win. The lone victory for Al-Fateh came in a close match ending 3-2, suggesting that while they have managed to compete at times, the overall trend heavily favors Al-Nassr. Additionally, Al-Fateh's last win against Al-Nassr occurred over a year ago, underscoring their struggles in this matchup.
Pro League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 15 | LWWWW |
| 2 |  Al-Qadisiyah FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 15 | WWWWL |
| 3 |  Al-Ittihad FC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 14 | WWDWW |
| 4 | Al-Nassr | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 12 | LWWWW |
| 5 |  NEOM | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 12 | WWLLW |
| 6 |  Al-Ettifaq | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 10 | DWLLW |
| 16 | Al-Fateh | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 3 | DDDLL |
| 17 |  Al-Faisaly FC | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 | DDLDL |
| 18 |  Abha | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 1 | LLDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAl-Nassr have won 11 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Al-Nassr 2-1 and beat Al-Nassr 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 23W 1D 6L from the last 30 games (77% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Al-Fateh have won 0 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Al-Fateh 0-0 and drew with Al-Faisaly FC 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 3W 10D 13L from the last 26 games (12% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAl-Nassr
No reported absences
Al-Fateh
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Al-Nassr have averaged 7.6 corners per match at home; Al-Fateh 3.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Al-Nassr have generated 1.62 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 77% of them. They put 5.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Al-Nassr player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
